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I do the Saturday fcst and severe wx updates.

I'll have more on here come Winter. It just doesn't pay for the very low traffic during the summer months. We had 15,000 hits in 3 months time Dec, Jan, and Feb.

March, April, and May: Less than 200.

Thanks!

Severe Weaher Threat Tonight

2:50 p.m. UPDATE:

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for much of our region until 10 p.m. Hail to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 80 MPH are possible.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch for is now in effect for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren counties in New Jersey.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes : Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes: Low (5%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots: Mod (60%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches: Mod (50%)

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events: High (>95%)






Northern and North Central New Jersey is under an unusual moderate risk designation for severe thunderstorms.

Damaging to destructive wind gusts appear to be the highest threat this evening into tonight. The thunderstorms will develop to our west and north and move east-southeast. At this point...most areas of NJ will see storms after 5 p.m. with the NW areas getting to see them possibly before the sun sets...hence the highest percentage of severe t-storms today in that area.

Some large hail cannot be ruled out...along with an isolated tornado.

A slight risk has now been issued for the rest of NJ...and with this heat...instability will linger into tonight to allow thunderstorms to persist after dark for a few hours.

Excessive Heat to Impact New Jersey Wednesday & Thursday

Heat Advisory valid from Noon Jun 08 for Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Ocean, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Warren, Western Monmouth [NJ] and Berks, Lehigh, Northampton [PA] until Jun 09, 8:00 PM.

Excessive Heat Warning from Noon Jun 08 for Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Northwestern Burlington [NJ] and New Castle [DE] and Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia [PA] until Jun 09 and 8:00 PM

Forecast:

96-99 on Wednesday across the area, isolated 100 degree reading possible

97-102 on Thursday, 100-102 has the best chance in the urban centers especially...

Heat Index Values higher...

Remember to drink plenty of fluids. During the warmer, daytime hours go to air-conditioned malls, libraries, movie theaters or any public place that is air conditioned. If a family member appears overheated, use cool compresses to cool skin. Do not hesitate to contact a physician if you have a health-related question.

Remember to check on elderly or home-bound neighbors, who may be susceptible to the effects of heat stress. Spend as much time as you can in cool surroundings. Use fans and air conditioners to cool your home. Slow down and take it easy. Physical activity produces extra body heat. Wear light-weight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing made of a breathable fabric, such as cotton. Wear a hat or use an umbrella to protect your head and neck when you are outdoors. Drink plenty of water; don't wait until you are thirsty. By then, you may already be dehydrated. Watch what you eat. Avoid eating hot foods or heavy meals. Use your stove as little as possible (use a microwave instead) and cook during the coolest part of the day. Take cool baths or showers. Cool water can remove body heat 25 times faster than cool air.
Avoid drinking alcohol and soda, as these actually dehydrate you faster. Instead, drink water or sports drinks.

If you have heat stroke, this is how you can tell:

Mental confusion, delirium, chills, dizziness, loss of consciousness, convulsions or coma...

A body temperature of 105 degrees F or higher...

Hot, dry skin that may be red, mottled or bluish...

A strong, fast pulse....

Power Outages will be possible during the excessive heat Wednesday and Thursday. Transformers can fail from overheating. Transformers are built to dissipate their heat, but in extreme weather conditions with extreme heat, there is no ability to cool because temperatures remain high throughout the night. Problems are also magnified in the confined spaces of an underground electrical system. If there is a flaw or crack in the cable insulation, a short circuit could occur as the cables expand from the heat. Increased demand for air conditioning means more electricity flowing through electric lines. This causes them to heat up and expand or sag, and in some cases they sag into tree branches, causing a short circuit. They also can sag to the point where they can be caught by tractor trailors and the trailors pull the wires and related poles down. Some electric equipment is sensative to the heat knowing the consequences of certain temperatures. The equipment will automatically and safely shut down to protect itself and other equipment. High current causes stretching of cables, switches, and other equipment and can increase the size of minor flaws in insulation or connections. Electric equipment can be weakened by previous ice storms, severe thunderstorms, lightning, and wet snow events (all things we have seen earlier this year) causing circuit failures, making it more susceptible to an outage as it can no longer withstand the increased flow of electricity during periods of high demand.

Some Great Days Ahead, A Few Thunder Chances

Monmouth, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties reported some large hail on Wednesday with a cold front that robbed the atmosphere of the moisture in New Jersey. Today we had many areas with dew points as low as the upper thirties during the afternoon! There is no doubt today will go down as one of the best days of the season. Abundant sunshine, temperatures barely touching 80 degrees, very low humidity, and breezy…probably ending up in the top five spot for best days of the season...by the way the cold front had not yet pushed through Atlantic and Cape May Counties this morning and the result was slightly warmer readings as they started at a high value for the day.

Thunderstorm Chances:

Saturday Night through Sunday Night, chance is about 40%.

We might see a slight chance of a t-storm at some point during next week...but confidence is low at this time..

Otherwise...outside of the scattered downpour chance...it will be mainly dry. Noticing a trend this season (we will see if it holds)...most thunderstorm chances have been in Central and Eastern Pennsylvania into Northern New Jersey with some touching Central NJ at times.

Scattered Severe T-Storms to Break the Heat Wednesday

A slight risk designation for severe thunderstorms has been issued for our entire area on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will bring an end to our excessive heat. Several parts of New Jersey by late afternoon on Wednesday will reach 90 degrees or higher for the third day in a row, making this the first official heat wave of 2011.

The Storm Prediction Center has given us a high-end slight risk designation in the day two outlook. A 15% and 30% probability of severe weather warrants a slight risk of severe weather in the day two outlook. Much of New Jersey is under a 30% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point. Most of the time when we are under a slight risk, we are placed within a 15% probability, so the threat is higher than normal at this time. Further evaluation will be done by the Storm Prediction Center on Wednesday Morning when we will be under the day one outlook which breaks the severe weather down by phenomena and gives a specific probability to each phenomenon.

While some large hail is possible, the main threat on Wednesday will be damaging wind gusts. The non-severe thunderstorm threats of dangerous cloud to ground lightning and brief torrential rains are likely with any thunderstorms.

Hot and Humid, T-Storms to Break The Heat

A heat advisory has been issued starting Monday at 12:00 PM EDT for Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, and Northwestern Burlington Counties. An excessive heat watch has been issued from Tuesday at 12:00 PM for Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, and Northwestern Burlington Counties through Wednesday Night.

For the advised and warned counties, heat indices will top out around 100 degrees for several hours on Memorial Day and around 105 degrees on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will likely be around 92 to 95 degrees each day. The coastline could be a few degrees cooler with the cool ocean still influencing the beaches, but with a more southwesterly wind component, this may not happen on at least one of these days of the interior heat wave. While it will be equally hot in some of the counties not under an alert for heat, one must keep in mind that the criteria is lower in the urbanized areas due to the census data suggesting lower income around Trenton and Camden. Unfortunately, many in the alerted counties do not have access to air conditioning. Also, the temperatures drop slower in this area at night due to the urbanized environment as pavement doesn’t allow for ideal cooling.

Thunderstorm chances:

A shallow cold front on Monday will bring the chance for isolated pop-up thunderstorm activity. The models have been decreasing the chance for a thunderstorm after ratcheting it up on Saturday. Any thunderstorm that can form will have plenty of access to strong instability due to strong warming. The storms will not only have a poor focus, but they will also have to fight a cap that will be in place. Chance is about 20 to 30 percent.

Tuesday, heat and humidity related isolated thunderstorm. Chance is about 10 to 20 percent.

Wednesday, a strong cold front arrives to break the heat. This is the best chance of a thunderstorm of the next seven days. These thunderstorms have a decent shot of producing hail and strong winds, perhaps to severe limits. The chance of a thunderstorm is about 60 percent.

Chance of a Thunderstorm on Saturday

Tonight, there is still about a 30% chance of a thunderstorm in Northwestern New Jersey. Otherwise, the latest radar trends show that thunderstorms will mainly just miss this area unlike last night. Central Pennsylvania and Maryland is yet again getting quite a pounding...but these storms are not moving on as big of a northwest angle.

Thunderstorms are again possible on Saturday. The model guidance is suggesting that this will be the greatest threat over the past several days for thunderstorms and the chances are not all that high. There is a 40% chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow and this would include just about every location. Some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible if sufficient sunshine occurs.

Otherwise: heatwave begins on Sunday for some and lingers into next Wednesday. While there will be a 10 to 20% chance of a thunderstorm on Sunday through Tuesday with the heat and humidity...the best chance for a severe weather outbreak and widespread thunderstorms will be on Wednesday when a powerful cold front will bring an end to the heat and cool us off by about 10 to 15 degrees for Thursday.