Quick Update on The Wintry Wx North, Rain/Sleet South

No changes were made to the advisory or warning area by the National Weather Service.

It is currently 40 degrees at the Morristown Municipal Airport. The dew point was 28 degrees and rising with the increase in moisture. The dew point will be slow to rise, so as the precipitation begins to fill in and become steadier, the temperatures will drop to the dew point value which would likely be around 34-37 during the start of the heavier precipitation. We call this evaporative cooling.

It won't drop to 28 degrees for an air temperature though since the dew point will rise with the increasing moisture...

The 00z NAM is much warmer than the previous NAM runs. The chances for this ending as snow, after a change to rain, with the second piece of energy would appear to be dwindling even further from this morning. The ending still needs to be watched carefully.

Steady band of snow appears to be developing...mixed with sleet and rain in Northern New Jersey...and again as this picks up...it will switch to snow.

Band around Maryland and Delaware is more broken...southern areas will see mainly rain, but even a few snowflakes or sleet pellets are possible here.

It looks like a damp, miserable day is arriving with a tease of snow.

The First Promo for the Site

Trenton and Newark Exceeds Temperature Expectations

As of 2:55 p.m., Trenton and Newark reached 80 degrees for a temperature so far. My forecast as of yesterday evening for a high was 76 degrees (higher than any other source).

Other areas are sitting between 74-79 degrees.

3/14/2011 Extended Forecast

We started off with abundant sunshine today, but a weak disturbance was able to find enough moisture to pop-up clouds. Skies should clear this evening. The clouds have also impacted temperatures and therefore we just were not able to reach 50 degrees. On Tuesday, I think we should see a bit more sunshine, especially early.

Clouds take over on Tuesday Night with an approaching cold front that will have a wave of low pressure ride along it. The southern energy should help push rain into our region late on Tuesday Night. The rain will be falling overnight and the high resolution modeling indicates the heaviest rain and even a few thunderstorms between 3:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. The modeling indicates clouds breaking for sunshine by noon on Wednesday. So obviously the start time of this and end time has been moved up some. One thing to watch will be if the front itself lags behind and the sun breaks out briefly ahead of it. That would result in a squall line. One-half inch to three-quarters of an inch look to be widespread rainfall amounts, although a thunderstorm could produce locally heavier rainfall.

Additional, renewed flooding is possible along the Passaic River. It won’t take too much to tip these areas over the banks again since flooding is still ongoing. Elsewhere, despite some heavy rainfall, I think we can squeeze by. Should the rain be heavier than predicted, in excess of 1.00”, problems would begin for numerous creeks and streams. Those that live along waterways need to monitor the latest conditions and forecasts since it such a close call.

Milder weather moves in on Friday, despite the passing cold front on Thursday. By Friday, a nice southerly flow will allow temperatures to surge past 70 degrees in some portions of the area. A cold front arrives later in the day and has the potential to cause thunderstorms to fire up.

Disturbance Throws Clouds Our Way

A disturbance this morning has a little more oomph it than the computer model guidance was suggesting. It has been able to find enough moisture to produce an area of clouds. Even a few sprinkles or flurries have been reported.
Variable cloudiness is expected for the rest of the day, with perhaps some clearing, especially south of Interstate 195.