Fire Weather Concerns

While a red flag warning has not been issued as of 8:00 a.m., it is possible a short-fused ref flag warning is issued later today. A dry cold frontal passage will kick up the winds from the southwest. Wind gusts of up to 35 MPH could spread any flames that develop today. The kicker against the fire weather threat has been the recent rain. The top half inch of the ground could dry out just enough for marginal conditions supportive of rapid wild fire.

Relative humidity will also be a factor. The cold front may push that number up, having it fall short of the 30% or less warning criteria. The front could also cause an isolated sprinkle or isolated shower to develop, although the guidance continues to suggest a completely dry frontal passage. Temperatures will rise well into the fifties today, with even an isolated 60 degree reading possible in the southern part of New Jersey.

Breezy Today

Wind gusts have now lowered into the 20-35 MPH range today. The winds will continue to decrease throughout the afternoon hours today. However, the low relative humidity and drying surface will create a bit of an enhanced fire danger concern in Southern New Jersey where snow cover is non-existent. I still think the lack of very mild temperatures and also a ground that still is fairly moist underneath the first half-inch of soil from the recent melt will preclude full-scale red flag conditions.