Midday Update on the Latest Storm

Sussex, Warren, and Morris County remain under winter storm warnings. The winter weather advisories that were in place around the warned counties have been cancelled. Warren and Morris County were added overnight. The evening into early morning round may prompt additional statements.

Snowfall totals were significant so far in Northwestern New Jersey.

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WERTSVILLE 2.9 914 AM 3/23
WHITEHOUSE STATION 2.4 705 AM 3/23
LEBANON 2.1 614 AM 3/23
BETHLEHEM TWP 2.0 633 AM 3/23
FLEMINGTON 1.6 818 AM 3/23

...MERCER COUNTY...
WEST WINDSOR TWP 1.0 535 AM 3/23
HIGHTSTOWN 0.5 846 AM 3/23

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 1.8 511 AM 3/23
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANASQUAN 0.4 817 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MILTON 7.5 750 AM 3/23
MARCELLA 7.5 629 AM 3/23
FLANDERS 6.5 805 AM 3/23
RANDOLPH TWP 6.5 559 AM 3/23
LAKE HOPATCONG 6.3 604 AM 3/23
GREEN POND 5.5 804 AM 3/23
JEFFERSON TWP 5.0 630 AM 3/23
ROCKAWAY 4.5 430 AM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
BOONTON 2.0 910 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.9 605 AM 3/23

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 2.5 819 AM 3/23
HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.2 644 AM 3/23
BRIDGEWATER TWP 2.0 630 AM 3/23
SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
FREDON 8.0 822 AM 3/23
SPARTA 6.0 707 AM 3/23
LAFAYETTE TWP 4.0 914 AM 3/23
NEWTON 3.8 710 AM 3/23
WANTAGE 1.8 749 AM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 5.0 500 AM 3/23
HACKETTSTOWN 3.5 702 AM 3/23
STEWARTSVILLE 2.8 756 AM 3/23
LIBERTY TWP 2.3 539 AM 3/23
PHILLIPSBURG 2.0 845 AM 3/23



This afternoon and tonight, the models are indicating additional precipitation moving into the region. There remains a concern that once again we could have periods of snow and sleet, possibly mixed with rain north of Interstate 195. North of Interstate 78 and 280, it may not mix with rain at all. This leaves the door open to possible additional snow accumulation. If this is the case, some of the higher elevations may see final storm totals in excess of one foot. In addition, the chance remains for colder air to filter as far south as the Atlantic City Expressway on Thursday Morning making any lingering precipitation turn back to sleet and wet snow. By the morning commute, the lingering precipitation should be more scattered but all locations could be supportive of daytime flurries and snow showers.

The warm sector remains well to the south of the region. Georgetown, Delaware is currently at 44 degrees. Locations north of the Atlantic City Expressway are in the middle and upper thirties, with even colder readings in Northern New Jersey. The warm sector could potentially lift into Extreme Southern New Jersey throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Should any of these areas get into the warm sector of the front, some temperature increase may occur which could lead to some greater instability supportive of severe thunderstorms. Currently, the slight risk designation of severe weather is in Delaware and this makes sense given how far South Jersey would have to go to overcome the current air mass. Meanwhile, radar trends out to the west show the possibility of convection even reaching into the colder, more stable areas north of the warm sector although the echoes are not the most impressive. Therefore, some low-topped convection is possible, especially south of Interstate 195. With the freezing layer relatively low, any thunderstorm has the potential to produce some hail regardless of where it forms. The higher chances of larger hail are south where a greater potential for updrafts exist. Furthermore, more aggressive convection may form late this afternoon across West Virginia and Kentucky that has the potential to survive and clip our southern areas late tonight.

Rain/Mix Ending as Snow to Strong Winds on Tuesday

Here we go with another challenging event to forecast overnight into Tuesday Morning. It may be the wind behind the system that ends up being the bigger news story. A cold front is approaching the region. The models continue to shift the heaviest axis of an area of 0.10” to 0.25” of available liquid. Some runs, as you can find in previous posts, cover the entire region while others only cover parts of the area. The “540 Line” continues to be shifting well offshore as the bulk of the precipitation falls. However, the boundary layer and the surface is likely going to be above freezing. Therefore the normal equivalent of one to three inches of snow will not work for this storm. Some snow may indeed fall for less than six hours, but this will likely be a situation where the flakes melt on contact with the surface. There still appears to be a small window of opportunity for some rain to mix with the wet snow at the start of this event and there could also be some sleet mixing in with the wet snow. The higher resolution models continue to show some liquid rain, although I do not recall many events where the “540 Line” was hundreds of miles offshore and we were dealing with liquid precipitation. In the Northwestern Counties, the temperatures will be closest to freezing at the surface and this is the area that has the greatest chance for accumulating snowfall and hazardous road conditions. Temperatures will be highest in the morning hours and then fall throughout the daylight hours. We will have to see how quickly temperatures fall just before the morning commute as they may fall in some areas to around freezing raising concerns for some black ice. The temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day. Overall, it is appearing more likely that this will be a minor headache.

Simply put, a rain or rain/snow changes to snow for just about everyone and all of this is for less than six hours and the ground may not support much accumulation. There still remains a low probability that the energy from Florida will scrape New Jersey with heavier precipitation.

Strong Northwest winds will build in, turning the lake effect snow machine on although the lakes are likely a bit frozen. There appears to also be a disturbance crossing Northern New Jersey. All of these factors suggest some snow squalls or snow showers could develop on Tuesday Afternoon. Watch out for these as squalls could drop a quick coating of snow and reduce visibility with the gusty winds. The most likely area of these snow squalls is from about Route 130 near North Brunswick and points north from that area.

Unexpected Snow Causes Morning Commute Nightmare

Last night, Kathy Orr from CBS 3 and I were talking about the possibilities of what may happen with this winter storm. She was concerned that this storm would not behave as the models projected and she could not be more correct. Heavy snow developed this morning and has left an accumulation everywhere, even in Southern New Jersey. A wintry mix is lifting up slowly through Southeastern New Jersey and is trying to push up to Philadelphia. The snow is also a wet snow which is causing accumulations on trees and power lines. At the very moment, the precipitation could shut off before that snow line makes as it that far north.

Roadways are totally snow covered in many spots around Central and Southern New Jersey. Along the mixing line, there is some evidence of icing and sleet accretion. The morning commute is a mess as this is more than a nuisance event. This is what we would call an over performing system because of the much more intense precipitation areas than what the models and forecasts called for.

Areas that remain snow could see several inches this morning before a lull when part two starts. Some areas that may eventually switch to a wintry mix still will see several inches. Areas that see a wintry mix still may see quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain. Rain and some sleet will fall in Southeastern New Jersey and along the coastline.

Round two will be a subject for later this morning.

South Jersey Flash Freeze, Switch to Snow

The coastal storm is pulling away. As it does so, the rain and freezing rain that made it as far north as Burlington and Ocean Counties is switching to wet snow. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Temperatures will drop below freezing if they were above 32 degrees at any point early this morning and the wet, untreated surfaces will quickly ice over. This is a classic textbook definition of a flash freeze. The radar is showing this colder air on the back-side of the storm very well.

Elsewhere, where it was snow, several inches accumulated, especially in Central New Jersey.

Again, I cannot stress how if you live in areas that saw rain what a surprise you will be in for in the next hour or two as the roads will freeze up leading to numerous traffic accidents. The temperatures will fall throughout the day.

Best of Storm Begins Now, Mixing In Parts of South Jersey

The transfer of energy to the coast is in progress. The area of precipitation that began to develop around the Chesapeake Bay is behaving as I expected. It has now expanded to cover most of the Delaware Valley into Central and Southern New Jersey. This area will continue to become more intense and expand over the ocean. The radar will fill in over the ocean as pressure falls offshore.

Heavy snow at times can be expected over the next two to three hours across New Jersey. In between the Atlantic City Expressway and Route 70 will lay the line between rain and snow. With temperatures around freezing, some freezing rain can be expected. I have seen a mixture of rain, wet snow, and sleet over the past hour with a temperature of around 32 degrees. The mixing zone is lining up exactly where I anticipated it would. Atlantic City and Cape May will see mainly heavy rain with some sleet/ wet snow mixed in, especially towards the end. I could even see this ending as some snow for these areas.

Snow Starting to Fill In, Mix & Rain Line Becoming Clear on Radar

As I mentioned in the previous update, we had to watch the area of precipitation blossom around the Chesapeake Bay. As expected, this area is expanding and intensifying. It will likely soon begin to jog to the east and begin to fill in over the ocean. I am starting to notice some intensification of the precipitation around the Delmarva and Southern Maryland. This is the transfer of energy into a coastal storm that is beginning to take place.

Right now the heaviest bands of snow are developing across the Interstate 95 corridor. This will shift eastward a bit over the next hour or two as the precipitation fills in around the Delmarva and moves northward. The radar image is also beginning to show the mixing and rain area as the precipitation fills in.

Warmer air pushing northward, Fog Concerns

Warmer air continues to push into New Jersey, changing the freezing rain over to rain in many areas.

A winter weather advisory continues for Middlesex County in New Jersey. A winter storm warning remains in effect for Hunterdon and Somerset Counties. These areas continue to have pockets of air temperatures at or below freezing.

Untreated surfaces in Southern New Jersey still have slush on them and in some cases a coating of ice. The ground temperature is still cooler than the air temperature. So driving slow and with caution still applies where the temperature is between 30 and 40 degrees. It is 35 degrees in in Wrightstown and 34 degrees in Mount Holly. It is 39 in Lakehurst and 48 in Atlantic City. It is 34 in Newark. However, in Somerville it is 32 with freezing rain still reported there.

In Northwestern New Jersey, there are now a 2,000-4,000 people without power as a result of the icing up there continuing.

This Afternoon: The rain will taper off to drizzle and mist, before ending. As the rain stops mixing the air, the warmer air temperatures riding over the snow cover will allow for fog to form. Some of this fog could be dense.

Early Wednesday Morning: The models are indicating the storm system out in the Ohio Valley producing a round of precipitation toward dawn. There are clear skies on the satellite in Western Pennsylvania ahead of this system. If skies should clear tonight for a few hours before the arrival of this light precipitation, we may have temperatures fall back to around or just below freezing in Central New Jersey and perhaps even in interior Southern New Jersey. This could cause some black ice to form and if the precipitation comes in, there could be some wintry mix.

Cold Air Trapped in the Interior

Atlantic City is reporting 47 degrees this morning! However, as you travel just 10 or 15 miles inland...the temperatures drop off fairly quickly.

It is 33 in Mount Holly and 34 in Wrightstown. It is 34 in Trenton. Trenton is reporting freezing rain still, despite the air temperature around 34 degrees. The problem that seems to be occuring is that the ground temperature of the immediate surface is still 32 degrees allowing icing to continue. It is just like the concept of taking ice cubes and putting it into water. The water cools down. Here we had sleet and snow on the ground, then icing, and now we are taking plain rain and putting it down.

Towards Central New Jersey, Somerville is 30 degrees. I think this area will likely remain ice through the mid-morning. We do have roughly 2,000 people without power in Middlesex County. It is 31 degrees in New Brunswick at Rutgers University. Newark in Northern New Jersey is also being impacted by freezing temperatures with a current temperature of 32 degrees.

A winter storm warning remains in effect for Hunterdon and Somerset Counties. These areas were previously under an advisory. Temperatures in these counties are taking quite a bit of time to rise above freezing giving prolonged icing to these areas. If travel takes you North and West, warnings for significant icing also exist.

There are some power outages across Jersey Central and Power and Lights service territory this morning. This is the result of the icing on trees bringing down limbs or weak trees.

One problem I suspect could pop-up is that once the rain begins to end mid-morning from South to North is that we could see some fog develop as milder air rides over the snow on the ground. I could see some dense fog develop as well.

Later on today I will discuss the morning shower threat for Wednesday and another potential snowstorm.

Wintry Weather Continues

Freezing rain and sleet is now being reported as far north as Burlington, Ocean, and Philadelphia counties.

I am also noticing that Somerville and Newark are not responding that well yet to the warmer air.

Finally, I highlighted on the one map a very heavy area of precipitation with some thunderstorms. This area of heavy precipitation and thunder may contain some strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH. I would not be surprised to see a wind advisory or even a short-fused warning issued for this area.

Rainfall in South Jersey could total 2 or 3 inches and with the snow melting, there could be some poor drainage flooding and sharp rises on the creeks and streams. Some minor flooding cannot be ruled out. Where this remains ice, we could have some significant and damaging icing. I think this is most likely in Western Central New Jersey into Northwestern New Jersey. Numerous power outages would be possible in these areas as the weight of the snow, followed by heavy icing would knock down branches, wires, poles, and trees.