Turning Active Again Soon

The quite weather continues and we are not at mid-week. There just has not been much to discuss or write about lately. This should change this weekend. Basically, we are in an atmospheric traffic jam. High pressure is holding firm across our region while a strong low pressure system exists out over the Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, a stationary front has been nearly stationary to our southwest and that front has been responsible for significant severe weather from Ohio down through South Carolina.

The ridge that has been bouncing the thunderstorms off the invisible barrier will begin to breakdown and shift eastward, doing so very slowly. This will allow a weak front to slowly move eastward this weekend. As it makes a closer approach, thunderstorm and rain shower chances will increase. Since everything is jammed, it will also take several days to push the unsettled weather out of here.

Saturday through Tuesday look to be the days that are most unsettled at this point. Daytime heating will lead to the best shower and thunderstorm chances each day. Some days could feature some strong to severe thunderstorms and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Slow moving storms may pose an increased risk for localized flooding. A good Atlantic and Gulf moisture flow would only enhance the heavy rainfall threat.

Thunderstorms Strongest to our West on Tuesday

A few thunderstorms are likely on Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The models have trended warmer in the past few runs and this likely means more instability. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has the greatest chances of severe weather to our west. This may change in future forecasts if the frontal timing is moved up. This biggest issue preventing severe wx at this point in our region is the arrival of the most intense forcing after dark into early on Wednesday.

However, some heavy downpours, gusty winds, small hail, and lightning remains possible with any t-storm despite low chances of severe wx.

Isolated Thunderstorms Later Today

A warm front is currently lifting through North-Central New Jersey, with plenty of sunshine to the south of the boundary.

Despite increasing instability with daytime heating---I don't see too many things out there to trigger thunderstorms here in New Jersey. I think the primary threat for thunderstorms will be in Pennsylvania today. However, a sea breeze front or bay breeze front could initiate an isolated t-storm. With the warm front lifting northward, a hidden boundary riding along it may also pose a risk for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

The 06z GFS was a bit more robust with the thunderstorm chances for today, compared to the 12z NAM. Any thunderstorm that does form, could potentially produce strong gusty winds, hail, and dangerous lightning. Otherwise it will be a sunny day with warm and humid conditions. Some southern sections may inch towards the 90 degree mark.

Lightning Storms cause some power issues

Thunderstorms developed into a line this evening that sagged south into Southern New Jersey. While no severe weather was reported with this line, the thunderstorms packed quite a bit of intense lightning leaving several thounsand in the dark in Southern New Jersey...especially around the Atlantic Cityt Metro where reports of more than 3,000 without power for a time were received.

However, between 12:30 a.m. and 2:45 a.m., another batch of thunderstorm will move in from Eastern Maryland and Delaware. This cluster has been producing very intense lightning all evening and should continue to do so as it moves into South Jersey. Therefore....additional outages related to the dangerous and frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes will be likely.

Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms continues for today by the Storm Prediction Center. A cold front will put on the brakes as it approaches the region while we will be in the warm sector of the front. Waves of low pressure will move along the boundary causing areas of thunderstorms to develop today and move along and south of the boundary.

With sunshine expected after morning clouds and showers, the atmosphere should see instability rapidly increase. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. There is a 2% chance of an isolated tornado due to the shear.

A Few T-storms the Rest of Today, Slight Risk of Severe Wx on Sunday

The morning rain is now exiting the coastline. Overcast skies may eventually give way to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, resulting in some peaks of sunshine. The sunshine would quickly destabilize the atmosphere and with some moisture left in place combined with good bulk shear, some widely scattered thunderstorms may develop, especially out of the current shower cluster exiting West Virginia. Even if it is cloudy, thunderstorms that initiate may move into the overcast areas. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a “see text” or 5% risk of severe weather for today. There is a 5% risk for damaging winds and a 5% risk for large hail. There is some thinning noted in Central Pennsylvania and Central Maryland before that next batch of organized showers and eventual thunderstorms moves our way from West Virginia and this will probably bring the greatest potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms as there isn’t a whole lot of forcing out there. But even given this area on the radar…the cluster of showers and thunderstorms may affect areas mainly south of Trenton.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are a possibility on Sunday. While instability will be modest with expected cloud cover, enough of it will combine with bulk shear and more organized trigger mechanisms to warrant a probability of strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Sunday, with a 15% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

Watching Skies to the West

Thunderstorms have begun to develop...although very scattered and disorganized so far...in Central Pennsylvania. With strong instability in place, Central and Eastern Pennsylvania have been placed under a severe thunderstorm watch as that instability can cause a t-storm or two to organize to severe limits once a thunderstorm initiates. "Can" is the key word as forcing is weak. But with a "chance", the watch has been posted for the areas out to our west.

The NAM from 18z just in continues to show that these storms remain disorganized due to a lack of strong convergence and that they diminish greatly by the time they arrive in New Jersey as night begins to approach. The instability may cause these storms to survive a bit more than the models indicate...but as I have been indicating...the threat for thunderstorms will be isolated especially with the instability to decrease when they arrive between 8 and 9 or even later.

The slight risk area has also been reduced and cut down to include less of NJ.

Sunshine to Increase from South to North, T-Storm Risk Remains

All of New Jersey remains under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening by the Storm Prediction Center.

The risk for damaging winds is the primary risk, although the hail parameter guidance I use does suggest the potential for marginally severe hail.

We see very good sunshine breaking our within the warm sector in Southern New Jersey and I suspect this will lift northward throughout the afternoon, although some cloudiness from the west may tend to make things partly sunny when the sun breaks out for the remainder of Central and Southern New Jersey. The guidance continues to suggest a 20-30 degree temperature rise within a couple of hours which would drastically increase the instability needed for strong to severe thunderstorm initiation.

However, despite the given instability, there are STILL legitimate questions about whether there will be really a breakout of severe thunderstorms. Yes, we have a cold front which will act as a triggering mechanism to initiate thunderstorms. But the North American model and Global Forecast System model show weak convergence and lacks well organized and widespread thunderstorm initiation. In fact, the 12z NAM agrees with the previous two runs of the model and shows 0.00” of measurable precipitation in just about the entire New Jersey area.

So, this leads me to the forecast for the event. Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered in nature. Due to the instability, where they develop, they could quickly become severe with the potential for damaging winds and possible hail. The higher resolution modeling is a bit more robust with the development of thunderstorms for this afternoon across our region...but even these models have trended towards scattered development. At this present time, I am leaning with the modeling indicating less explosive and widespread development. This does not mean we will not have some pretty significant events with notable damage, it just means some areas could be bone dry and cloudy while others are getting hammered just 20 miles from where you reside.

Slight Risk for Severe T-Storm Wednesday, But Will They Form?

For Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has a high-end slight risk probability with a 30% chance for severe weather to occur within 25 miles of a point. Certainly the instability will be there tomorrow. Sunshine should develop by mid-morning and temperatures will quickly push well into the seventies as we will be in the warm sector of a warm front that will be lifting northward early this morning. Some of the more robust guidance even indicates some lower eighties across South Jersey. This will lead to CAPE values of 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg. The lifted index also may be at least -3, if not higher.

However, despite the given instability, there are legitimate questions about whether there will be really a breakout of severe thunderstorms. Yes, we have a cold front which will act as a triggering mechanism to initiate thunderstorms. But the North American model and Global Forecast System model show weak convergence and lacks well organized and widespread thunderstorm initiation. In fact, the 00z NAM shows 0.00” of measurable precipitation in just about the entire New Jersey area.

So, this leads me to the forecast for the event. Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered in nature. Due to the instability, where they develop, they could quickly become severe with the potential for damaging winds. The higher resolution modeling is a bit more robust with the development of thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon across our region. At this present time, I am leaning with the modeling indicating less explosive and widespread development. This does not mean we will not have some pretty significant events with notable damage, it just means some areas could be bone dry and cloudy while others are getting hammered just 20 miles from where you reside.

Showers and T-Storms Today

Frequent periods of showers and thunderstorms will affect the region today. Showers with a few thunderstorms are already moving in from the west along our nearly stationary cold front... which will eventually become a warm front and lift northward.

There will be quite a contrast from north to south today as the front will set up a dividing line. With the eventual warm front close to the warm sector and these waves riding along them, some strong to severe thunderstorms, isolated in nature, have the chance to form immediately south of the front while areas along and north of it will just see general showers and thunderstorms. 0.25" to 0.50"+ of rain appears likely still for the region with some localized higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Tonight I will discuss the potential for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday & Wednesday

A cold front will meander around the region on Tuesday and then go into reverse as a warm front. During the transition process, a few waves of low pressure will be riding along the front providing plenty of clouds with showers and thunderstorms. Southern areas could be quite warmer than northern areas with it very dependent on which side of the front you reside on. This front may also allow for some severe convection on in the warmer sector as the waves ride along the frontal boundary.

On Wednesday, a cold front will come into the region. The models are not all that robust with the afternoon and evening t-storm potential, but with the region potentially all in the warm sector and an approaching trigger...some severe thunderstorms are possible...even if not widespread.

With many waterways near flood stage and running high, 0.50" inches of rain may pose some problems and certainly any heavier thunderstorms would be of great concern.

Isolated Gusty T-Storms North Into This Evening Possible

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern half of New Jersey, including portions of North-Central New Jersey under a "see text" risk for severe thunderstorms and all of North/Central New Jersey in a general risk for thunderstorms.

A disturbance will take advantage of steep lapse rates to develop some showers and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms. I already see some showers developing downwind of the Great Lakes...moving on eastward. If they survive...they would arrive late this afternoon into early this evening...before losing daytime heating support. With stronger winds aloft (some observed already by good mixing with surface gusts to 40 MPH)...any t-storm may be able to tap into this a cause some marginally severe gusts.

At this time, I am keeping the threat isolated. CAPE values look very limited at this point and may develop slightly by 4 p.m. to coincide with the arrival of the disturbance.

Flooding:

Yesterday's rain really did a number on the region and this storm really lived up to the potential I had been forecasting. Major flooding once again is ongoing in Northern New Jersey with moderate flooding in portions of Central New Jersey. The windy conditions today are also combining with the wet ground and I have had a few reports of power outages.

Coastal Flooding:

Still a threat of minor to moderate tidal flooding for the next few high tide cycles along the tidal portions of the Delaware River in Southern New Jersey.

Significant Rain, Wind, and Thunderstorm Event Saturday P.M.

A strong onshore flow will develop on Friday afternoon and draw in Atlantic Moisture into the entire region. This is as high pressure builds to our north, allowing the wind to shift from the easterly direction. As Saturday transpires, a storm system will move in from the Plains and slowly lift northeast into the Great Lakes. The area of low pressure will drag a cold front through the region on Saturday Evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to organize on the front and, combined with that onshore flow, torrential rainfall appears likely.

In addition, there is the potential for another round of high winds from the east-southeast direction. Wind gusts between 40 and 60 MPH look like a strong bet at this point, although this will be nailed down in more detail as we approach the event. With the ground soakings of the past few weeks and more rain with this system...many trees could come down should there be high winds...and with developing leaves...the trees will even be more subceptible to falling. Thunderstorms are possible and these could feature the strongest gusts.

At this point, 1.50" to 3.00" of a soaking rain appear very likely. Some flooding is possible of creeks and streams. Some rivers could also flood if we approach the 3.00". Some of this will be thunderstorm dependent.

We will be also watching potential tornadic development to our south where the Storm Prediction Center already has a slight risk of severe weather to our south in the Day 3 outlook. The ocean flow can sometimes cause things to become stable and preclude such agressive t-storm development...but not always as such was the case the other day...

Watching a Very Strong T-Storm Moving Our Way

5:50 p.m. UPDATE: The T-storm is now in Burlington County...about to approach Mercer... Middlesex... and Monmouth Counties...the storm is moving right up Route 206 for the time being....





I am watching a very strong cluster of thunderstorms that developed in Delaware and has so far survived to Vineland and Millville...moving northeast rapidly at 55 to 60 MPH.

Frequent lightning, torrents of rain, hail, and wind gusts to 50 MPH are likely with this storm. Should this storm strengthen further...which it very well could...large hail and damaging winds are possible.

I'll be watching it to see how far NE it makes.

Wet and Windy Later

A cold front is dropping down south of the region this morning and the cold front will become stationary this afternoon. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front and numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will develop. Heavy rainfall is likely, especially tonight into Wednesday Morning. One to two inches of rain may fall over a widespread area. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavier amounts and some localized flash flooding is possible if the thunderstorms can train over the same areas later today.

The severe weather threat will be highest in Southern New Jersey. Extreme Southern New Jersey is under a 5%, “see text” risk from the Storm Prediction Center for hail. The cold pool aloft would provide for favorable conditions for hail, but you need stronger instability to produce thunderstorms that can develop and pull the hailstones to the surface. Since the greatest instability lies south, this is where you may have some isolated thunderstorms with hail. Winds aloft will be intensifying with the developing jet, so gusty showers in all areas are possible this evening into the night. East and Northeast winds will become quite gusty at times into tonight and the National Weather Service believes winds will gust to 40 MPH at times. They also mention the chance that for gusts to approach the criteria for a wind advisory (46 to 57 MPH), but they right now have not issued a wind headline due to uncertainty. The ground is fairly wet from a decent rain event on the 8th and previous March rains, and should the wind coincide with the heavy rain later…we may see a few power outage issues. T-storms will be limited, but gusty in all areas should one develop...but the oceanic flow will help bring more stability to the region.

The intensifying low will also pull in the air that is off the ocean which is much colder... and this will help drop temperatures...slowly for the next few hours and then a sharper drop into this evening. Temperatures could be in the low to mid 50's for the evening commute.

Northwestern New Jersey will see moderate to heavy rain this morning with a transition to the entire region late today.

Unsettled Tuesday and Wednesday

Thunderstorms flared up as expected in Eastern Pennsylvania, but quickly died down with nightfall. Temperatures are currently in the seventies, but will slowly drop. Highs on Tuesday will likely be reached within the first hour or two. Isolated showers and possibly some thunderstorms could pop-up into the morning commute.

The cold front essentially stalls right over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong wave of low pressure will develop along the cold front, energizing the front. Therefore, periods of showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Severe weather will be at a minimum as the clouds and frequent showers will hold down the temperatures and keep instability in check. There still is enough instability for at least some thunderstorms with heavy rainfall being the main threat, although an isolated gusty thunderstorm is not out of the question. The models are keying in on Tuesday Night into Early Wednesday Morning for the heaviest round of very heavy rain and heavy thunderstorms. Should peaks of sunshine occur tomorrow, then we may have an increased threat for stronger thunderstorms but at this point it will be a “nowcast” event.

Thunderstorms Move Across Central and Southern New Jersey

Update: Central.New Jersey now under a winter weather advisory

Update: The NWS has placed all of NE New Jersey now under a winter wx advisory for snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle late tonight-Thursday Morning.

Very strong thunderstorms...near severe limits...are now in Southeastern New Jersey. These storms look ready to cause quite a bit of hail, in addition to strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms have knocked out power to some in Southern New Jersey according to Atlantic City Electric. 299 people as of 8:35 p.m. were reported to have no power. The most were in Gloucester and Salem Counties.

Meanwhile, pea-sized hail and even sleet has been reported in areas from about Route 287 and Route 1 and points south with some scattered thunderstorms.

South Jersey Thunderstorms

Strong thunderstorms with pea to nickel sized hail is quite possible. Look at the line that has rapidly developed in South Jersey.

A few isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail (quarter sized hail) and even damaging wind gusts is not out of the question.

It appears frequent lightning may occur with these storms.

Meanwhile, snow and sleet is starting to impact northern portions of New Jersey again.

Midday Update on the Latest Storm

Sussex, Warren, and Morris County remain under winter storm warnings. The winter weather advisories that were in place around the warned counties have been cancelled. Warren and Morris County were added overnight. The evening into early morning round may prompt additional statements.

Snowfall totals were significant so far in Northwestern New Jersey.

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
WERTSVILLE 2.9 914 AM 3/23
WHITEHOUSE STATION 2.4 705 AM 3/23
LEBANON 2.1 614 AM 3/23
BETHLEHEM TWP 2.0 633 AM 3/23
FLEMINGTON 1.6 818 AM 3/23

...MERCER COUNTY...
WEST WINDSOR TWP 1.0 535 AM 3/23
HIGHTSTOWN 0.5 846 AM 3/23

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 1.8 511 AM 3/23
EDISON 1.7 505 AM 3/23

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
MANASQUAN 0.4 817 AM 3/23

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MILTON 7.5 750 AM 3/23
MARCELLA 7.5 629 AM 3/23
FLANDERS 6.5 805 AM 3/23
RANDOLPH TWP 6.5 559 AM 3/23
LAKE HOPATCONG 6.3 604 AM 3/23
GREEN POND 5.5 804 AM 3/23
JEFFERSON TWP 5.0 630 AM 3/23
ROCKAWAY 4.5 430 AM 3/23
LONG VALLEY 4.0 448 AM 3/23
BOONTON 2.0 910 AM 3/23
STIRLING 1.9 605 AM 3/23

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
POTTERSVILLE 2.5 819 AM 3/23
HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.2 644 AM 3/23
BRIDGEWATER TWP 2.0 630 AM 3/23
SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 3/23

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
FREDON 8.0 822 AM 3/23
SPARTA 6.0 707 AM 3/23
LAFAYETTE TWP 4.0 914 AM 3/23
NEWTON 3.8 710 AM 3/23
WANTAGE 1.8 749 AM 3/23

...WARREN COUNTY...
BLAIRSTOWN 5.0 500 AM 3/23
HACKETTSTOWN 3.5 702 AM 3/23
STEWARTSVILLE 2.8 756 AM 3/23
LIBERTY TWP 2.3 539 AM 3/23
PHILLIPSBURG 2.0 845 AM 3/23



This afternoon and tonight, the models are indicating additional precipitation moving into the region. There remains a concern that once again we could have periods of snow and sleet, possibly mixed with rain north of Interstate 195. North of Interstate 78 and 280, it may not mix with rain at all. This leaves the door open to possible additional snow accumulation. If this is the case, some of the higher elevations may see final storm totals in excess of one foot. In addition, the chance remains for colder air to filter as far south as the Atlantic City Expressway on Thursday Morning making any lingering precipitation turn back to sleet and wet snow. By the morning commute, the lingering precipitation should be more scattered but all locations could be supportive of daytime flurries and snow showers.

The warm sector remains well to the south of the region. Georgetown, Delaware is currently at 44 degrees. Locations north of the Atlantic City Expressway are in the middle and upper thirties, with even colder readings in Northern New Jersey. The warm sector could potentially lift into Extreme Southern New Jersey throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Should any of these areas get into the warm sector of the front, some temperature increase may occur which could lead to some greater instability supportive of severe thunderstorms. Currently, the slight risk designation of severe weather is in Delaware and this makes sense given how far South Jersey would have to go to overcome the current air mass. Meanwhile, radar trends out to the west show the possibility of convection even reaching into the colder, more stable areas north of the warm sector although the echoes are not the most impressive. Therefore, some low-topped convection is possible, especially south of Interstate 195. With the freezing layer relatively low, any thunderstorm has the potential to produce some hail regardless of where it forms. The higher chances of larger hail are south where a greater potential for updrafts exist. Furthermore, more aggressive convection may form late this afternoon across West Virginia and Kentucky that has the potential to survive and clip our southern areas late tonight.

High Wind Watch For Friday

The National Weather Service has placed the entire state under a high wind watch from Friday Morning into Friday Evening. Again, this is a more serious wind alert product. A high wind watch means that 40 MPH Sustained Winds and/or frequent wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater are possible within 24 to 36 hours or less. If the threat increases, an upgrade to a warning would be possible.

Unlike last Saturday, this time I am anticipating a rain soaked ground by the time the high winds begin. This will lead to an increased potential for downed trees and downed poles. The high winds will begin to roar from the south-southwest ahead of a cold front in the areas that make it into the warm sector. Then there will be the strongest push immediately in front and behind the front where gusts could be in the 55 to 60 MPH range.

Keep in mind that this product is only for non-convective high winds (showers, wind with sun/clouds). There is the risk of some thunderstorms associated with the front itself which could contain damaging wind gusts of stronger, sudden nature and if this was the case, there would be severe weather watches and warnings in addition to the high wind alerts.