Links to Monitor Power Outages Across The Area

Whether it is the potential for significant icing or strong wind gusts with thunderstorms on Wednesday in Extreme Southern NJ, power outages are quite possible with this storm if forecasts come to fruition. Therefore I have put together a list of electric company websites which offer live outage information. The region has numerous electric companies which provide service.

PECO Energy [Southeastern Pennsylvania]

Met-Ed and PennPower [Eastern Pennsylvania and Central Pennsylvania]

Jersey Central Power and Light [New Jersey]

Public Service Electric and Gas [Western, Central, and Northern New Jersey]

Atlantic City Electric [South Jersey]

Delmarva Power [Delaware and Eastern Maryland]

Orange and Rockland [Extreme North Jersey]

2/1/2011 Extended Forecast: Freezing Rain Mess

Check back and refresh this page until 7 p.m. as I will be adding text and graphics.

It is very rare for an ice storm warning to be issued for New Jersey. I can count the times any part of New Jersey was under an ice storm warning within the past decade with my two hands. This should highlight the serious nature of this winter storm. Severe icing is expected in the ice storm warning areas which could down trees and power lines. Travel will become impossible and extremely dangerous in the ice storm warning area. The counties under an ice storm warning are Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Union, Passaic, Essex, Bergen, Mercer, and Middlesex. Icing reaching warning criteria is 0.25” or greater.

Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, Monmouth, and Cumberland Counties are under a freezing rain advisory. This is another product that is not issued too often. This means some icing is likely, which will cause treacherous driving conditions, but the icing it will not be severe enough to down multiple trees and power lines. Isolated power outages are possible in this area, perhaps more so attributed to people having accidents with electrical poles or trees. The criterion for an advisory for ice is a trace to 0.24”. However, during this particular storm, there is still some uncertainty in this region about how cold the temperatures are during the heavier rain at the surface. Should the temperatures at the surface respond slower to warmer air or should the precipitation be heavier while temperatures are around or below freezing, warning criteria ice could occur here requiring a warning upgrade. This is most likely for Western Monmouth County and the parts of the counties along the Delaware River.

Across the ice storm warning area, some sleet could mix in at times. However, at this present time, it appears icing of over one-half inch can be expected. Some of the guidance indicates record extremes of over one-inch of ice accrual over a portion of the current ice storm warning area. Should these values be realized, this is extremely destructive and serious damage to vegetation and electrical grids would occur. This is most likely in Northwestern New Jersey down through northwestern portions of Central New Jersey. Elsewhere, one-quarter to one-half inch or more of ice may occur. This amount of ice can certainly cause widespread power outages and break branches on trees. It is in this area where temperatures were below freezing much of the day so there is already a glaze maintained from round one and we will be adding to this.

It goes without saying that long-term power outages are possible. I would make sure you have a working generator, non-perishable foods, water, medicine, and very warm clothing in place should you lose electricity.

I am expecting freezing drizzle and light freezing rain across New Jersey this evening. Temperatures in South Jersey, with the exception of Southeastern New Jersey, will drop to around or below freezing as the daylight begins to end. Elsewhere, temperatures are now at or below freezing and they will fall or hold steady. A north or northeast wind will make it very hard for below freezing temperatures to be scoured out at the surface. In addition, the lack of daylight and the snowpack will aid to keeping the colder air locked at the surface. This is called cold-air damming. Elevation and distance are significant factors involved in this process and obviously these factors favor the interior north. Still, icing will begin in most areas tonight and the threat will end in southeastern portions of South Jersey around or after the morning commute. The icing will persist through the morning commute in northwestern portions of Southern New Jersey and Central New Jersey and points north. Then the icing area will shrink to the northern and northwestern areas of New Jersey.

Flooding of streets is likely in areas that see heavy liquid rain. The snow is blocking storm drains and the frozen ground will not handle heavy rain. The rains will runoff allowing for this street flooding. Some creeks and streams may also flood. I should also note that some minor coastal flooding issues could add to the poor drainage flooding. The heaviest liquid rain will be over the shore points that have the least snow cover and also the sandy soils.

Windy conditions could exist for a window of time, especially along the coastline. Gusts could approach 40 MPH. Some thunderstorms are also possible around the warmer portion of this storm. Atlantic City could be around 50 degrees while the interior is much colder.
On Wednesday Night, temperatures will begin to drop rapidly as the system pulls away. This will cause a rapid freeze of any liquid. There could also be some snow showers as this storm begins to move out of our region. Thursday Morning could be a mess as a result of the refreezing of slush and water. Icing areas that never see 32 degree or above air temperatures will have to wait until Friday for the ice to melt if surfaces are not treated well.

Another winter storm is likely on Saturday. The latest computer model guidance suggests a wintry mix will be likely as the “540 Line” moves into the interior. However, we are on the colder side of this coastal storm, so warmer air coming into the region will be limited. Colder air will move in during the storm and the precipitation may end as snow. Anyhow, some sleet and freezing rain cannot be ruled out with even some liquid rain in South Jersey.
Another winter storm is likely Monday into Tuesday. This could be another overrunning event which is followed up by a storm cutting to our west, introducing warmer air, which may include rain or a wintry mix.

Ice Storm Warnings Issued for North Jersey

There have been some additional changes to the advisories, watches, and warnings across New Jersey.

A winter weather advisory remains in effect for Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Monmouth, and Salem Counties. This is for part one of the storm which is in progress with freezing drizzle. A warning was dropped for Hudson County in North Jersey and an advisory is now in effect there.

A winter storm watch remains in effect for Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Monmouth, and Salem Counties.

A winter storm warning remains in effect for Middlesex, Mercer, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, and Sussex Counties.

An ice storm warning has now been issued for Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Union, and Hudson Counties. the winter storm warning is cancelled as freezing rain will be the main issue now for these areas.

Turning Attention to Part 2

Part one of the storms did not live up to the forecast as the snow and sleet was minimal in Central and Southern New Jersey. Many picked up a coating of snow which was followed by light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. The light icing made for a difficult morning commute.

Temperatures are now rising above freezing in most of the area. The big question tonight will be which locations will drop a few degrees with the diminishing daylight. For some areas, this could be extremely close as 32/33 degrees makes all the difference between an ice storm and a heavy rain storm. The high resolution models continue to indicate icing north of the Atlantic City Expressway and west of the Garden State Parkway. More serious icing continues to appear as though it will affect Northwestern Central New Jersey into Northern New Jersey.

The warm air aloft has even begun to impact the northern counties so it looks as though the snow will even be minimal there. Sussex County has temperatures in the teens, so some snow could still be falling in that county. Should there be rain, it will be quite dangerous up there.

A winter storm warning has been continued for Sussex, Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren, Morris, Mercer, Middlesex, Passaic, Essex, Union, Hudson, and Bergen Counties. This is for both part one and part two of the storm.

A winter storm watch has been continued for Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. This is for part two of the storm only.

A winter weather advisory has been continued for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, and Cumberland Counties. This is for part one of the storm only.

Criterion:

A winter storm warning means four inches or more of snow or sleet and/or 0.25” or greater of ice accretion is imminent or occurring. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is six inches.

A winter storm watch means four inches or more of snow or sleet and/or 0.25” or greater of ice accretion is possible. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is six inches.

A winter weather advisory means two inches of snow or sleet/and or 0.01” to 0.24” of ice accretion is imminent or occurring. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is three inches.

Major Winter Storm To Strike New Jersey

Thanks for your waiting...Blog Finished.
A winter storm warning has been issued for Sussex, Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren, Morris, Mercer, Middlesex, Passaic, Essex, Union, Hudson, and Bergen Counties. This is for both part one and part two of the storm.

A winter storm watch has been issued for Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, and Monmouth Counties. This is for part two of the storm only.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. This is for part one of the storm only.

Criterion:

A winter storm warning means four inches or more of snow or sleet and/or 0.25” or greater of ice accretion is imminent or occurring. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is six inches.

A winter storm watch means four inches or more of snow or sleet and/or 0.25” or greater of ice accretion is possible. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is six inches.
A winter weather advisory means two inches of snow or sleet/and or 0.01” to 0.24” of ice accretion is imminent or occurring. North of Interstate 195, the criteria for snow is three inches.

A serious and very dangerous winter storm is about to impact New Jersey. This storm will bring different weather elements to different parts of the state. From surveying members of the public today, they are very confused about what to expect. There simply is not enough time to explain all the details for each part of the state on television or radio. So I will try to break things down here the best I can.

I am expecting snow to break out across much of our region late tonight into Tuesday Morning. The snow is the result of warmer air riding over colder air. This is called overrunning induced precipitation in meteorology. Eventually, the warmer air will cause the air aloft to rise above freezing and this will begin to melt the snowflakes. However, cold air will hang tough at the surface and below freezing temperatures will remain stubborn in the interior. Therefore, freezing rain can be expected. The layer of below freezing temperatures at the surface at first may be large enough for the raindrops to refreeze before hitting the surface. This is sleet. Otherwise, raindrops will freeze when they make contact with a below freezing surface making it freezing rain. As the warmer air makes inroads aloft, the precipitation intensity will lighten and shift northward. Therefore, Central and Southern New Jersey may only experience freezing drizzle into the evening. The precipitation should remain snow for much of Tuesday in the higher terrain and this is where the heaviest available liquid is expected to be. Therefore, I still expect four to eight inches of snow in this area. My snowfall map remains unchanged. Some portions of New Jersey below Interstate 195 could rise a degree or two above freezing as the precipitation intensity lightens. However, temperatures will drop as the sun begins to set slightly and this will mean temperatures falling down below or at freezing in time for part two. The more mixing we see, the less snowfall we will get. This makes for a tricky forecast for snowfall totals.

The second part of the storm is an inland coastal low pressure area. This will be passing to our west and then over/just north of the region on Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The position of the low pressure area places New Jersey on what is considered the “warm side” of the storm. This will take a warm front and try to lift it up through the state from the southeast. However, how far inland and how fast that warm front moves through the state is in question. I have a feeling that this front will have difficulty lifting up through the area. We could have 20 degree difference in temperature from northwest to southeast. The shore could see some 50's on Wednesday with t-storms. The snowpack and an area of high pressure hanging tight to our north initially will continue to make it difficult for the temperatures to warm at the surface in the interior. This is especially true for areas with a northeast wind. This is what we call cold air damming. Therefore, more freezing rain can be expected. I expect this to give way at some point South and East of Trenton, but even along Routes 70, 73, 206, and 130…this may take several hours. The beginning of the second part may have some fairly good available liquid, so even here one-quarter of an inch of ice or more could accumulate before a change to plain rain. Any plain rain that occurs on Wednesday Afternoon could be very heavy and combine with the snow and ice to cause flooding problems. Meanwhile, areas that do not see a change to rain will see a crippling ice storm.

For the flooding potential, the greatest amount of plain rain will be in areas with the least snowfall and the sandy soil. However, should heavy rain impact areas around the Delaware and Raritan Basins, more significant stream, creek, and river flooding would be likely. I think the greatest flooding issue will be poor drainage flooding as the ground is frozen and covered in snow and many roadway drains are blocked by the snow and ice.

Winds could become gusty for a time on Wednesday, especially as the warm front lifts through. Wind gusts could approach or exceed 40 MPH along the coastline. The wind will be gusty inland as well. For areas with ice, wind and ice will make for a bad combination. It takes 0.25” of ice to begin to down trees and wires. The more widespread outages come with 0.50” or greater of freezing rain.

If we do see over 3 inches of wet snow on trees in parts of New Jersey and add the expected ice I am forecast….power outages could be severe in Northwest and Western-Central New Jersey. By the way, the new NAM shows over 1.00” of liquid in just a six hour span…so 1.75” of ice in some areas looks reasonable. That amount of ice has the potential to devastate and destroy. Please see the map to see which area I have highlighted. Keep in mind we have set just about every record, so setting records with icing will not be a shock.

The extended forecast calls for temperatures to drop quickly behind the winter storm on Wednesday Night. For areas that see rain Wednesday Afternoon, roadways may freeze up quickly by nighttime. We should see some snow showers as the storm departs very early on Thursday Morning. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to rise above freezing.

Friday is the calm before another storm on Saturday. This storm could bring snow inland and a wintry mix in Southeastern New Jersey. Right now, an accumulating snow is expected in the interior. Whether or not this system will bring a more significant snow is in doubt, but I believe it has a potential to do so.

Ice Storm Threat Looms...While Atlantic City could get mild

At this time, there is really nothing new with my forecast from yesterday for this upcoming storm. Later today, I will be putting out an ice accumulation map FOR PART TWO OF THE STORM. Some sections of New Jersey will be dealing with a crippling and damaging ice storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. This could be made worse with wet snow expected just hours before the changeover to freezing rain. There continues to appear to be a sharp temperature contrast between Sussex County and Cape May County.

I would say PSE&G and Jersey Central Power and Light have their work cut out for them if this forecast holds. We could be looking at widespread power outages in portions of the state. Atlantic City Electric may not have as much work as the more significant snow and icing in their service territory will be confined to Burlington and Ocean Counties. Needless to say, the winter storm watch counties should be preparing for power outages. Generators, flash lights, and non-perishable foods would be a good thing to have on hand. We could see some areas have prolonged power outages.

It is very possible the icing period goes on longer than anticipated in some of the areas under the winter storm watch. The trend this winter has been for a colder than expected solution to develop. I would also note to all my readers that the ice is not going to melt as soon as the temperature rises to 33 degrees. If there is more than a tenth of an inch of ice on the surfaces, it will take at a minimum two or three hours to fully melt the ice buildup.

Atlantic City has the potential to exceed 50 degrees on Wednesday, while Trenton will struggle to reach 35 degrees.

Wind and flooding potential with this system as well will be addressed this evening in my forecast.

A winter storm watch is in effect for Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Burlington, Ocean, Monmouth, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Warren, Sussex, Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Union, and Essex Counties. This watch area also includes the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and New York City.

1/30/2011 Extended Forecast: Two Part Storm

After a morning with light icing due to freezing fog, more wintry weather involving icing is one the way.

On Tuesday, warm air advection associated with a warm front will enter our region. The warmer air will ride over the Arctic Air being held in place by an area of high pressure. This will cause precipitation to break out on late Monday Night and especially on Tuesday Morning. This is what we call overrunning in meteorology. The precipitation will begin as snow or a mixture of snow and sleet. The latest models suggest the heaviest precipitation across Northern and Central New Jersey. There could be some light rain at the coastline mixing with sleet, but the models actually do not show much precipitation in this area with part one. The “540 Line” will slowly push northward throughout the day. After the morning round of precipitation, the precipitation will be lighter during a lull between this event and the big inland low for Wednesday. The arrival continued infiltration of warmer air aloft along with lighter precipitation intensity will result in the snow and sleet switching over to rain. There could be a window of opportunity for temperatures to rise above freezing, before falling back a few degrees once the sun sets. Once the temperature falls back, Tuesday Night could feature freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. I have included a snow map as Northern and Central New Jersey could pick up several inches of wet snow. It is a good idea to clean off your roofs as the snow liquid content is very high.

On Wednesday, a very strong low will cut up through the Great Lakes region. This means we will be on the “warmer side” of the storm system. This will draw in warmer oceanic air. Therefore, the chances of this system bringing snow or sleet are low. This looks like freezing rain to rain for many areas. The question will be how many hours of below freezing temperatures and what will be the intensity during that time frame. It is possible some areas receive up to one-half inch or more of liquid before plain rain comes in. The criterion for an ice storm is one-quarter of an inch. So even if you see plain rain by the end of the event, you may have an ice storm prior to the switch to rain. Each storm seems to be colder than the models predict initially, so we will have to watch how the models handle the departure of the cold air at the surface and a high pressure area to our north. The high pressure area could lock the below freezing surface air in for quite a few hours in the interior. The snow on the ground will also aid in keeping the cold air at the surface. This would be classic cold air damming. Areas in Northwestern New Jersey could see wet snow on Wednesday which could changeover to heavy freezing rain.

All in all, widespread icing amounts of 0.25” to 0.50” is likely in interior portions of Central and Southern New Jersey, before any change to plain rain. The most icing will occur close to the Delaware River. Then we will have to nail down whether this ice will linger for more hours during the Wednesday storm or whether this plain rain takes over. Still, 0.25” could down trees and power lines and make travel impossible. I have inserted another map indicating where I feel the best chance of icing will be.

Areas that observe heavy, plain rain have the potential to see widespread and significant poor drainage flooding. Some creek, stream, and even river flooding would be possible should heavy, plain rain fall for several hours around the Delaware River and Raritan River Basins. This rain will combine with a ground loaded with moisture and snow-cover. In addition, the ground is frozen which will increase the runoff further. Needless to say, if you are flood prone you need to watch for the latest forecasts.