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I do the Saturday fcst and severe wx updates.

I'll have more on here come Winter. It just doesn't pay for the very low traffic during the summer months. We had 15,000 hits in 3 months time Dec, Jan, and Feb.

March, April, and May: Less than 200.

Thanks!

Severe Weaher Threat Tonight

2:50 p.m. UPDATE:

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for much of our region until 10 p.m. Hail to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts up to 80 MPH are possible.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch for is now in effect for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, and Warren counties in New Jersey.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes : Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes: Low (5%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots: Mod (60%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches: Mod (50%)

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events: High (>95%)






Northern and North Central New Jersey is under an unusual moderate risk designation for severe thunderstorms.

Damaging to destructive wind gusts appear to be the highest threat this evening into tonight. The thunderstorms will develop to our west and north and move east-southeast. At this point...most areas of NJ will see storms after 5 p.m. with the NW areas getting to see them possibly before the sun sets...hence the highest percentage of severe t-storms today in that area.

Some large hail cannot be ruled out...along with an isolated tornado.

A slight risk has now been issued for the rest of NJ...and with this heat...instability will linger into tonight to allow thunderstorms to persist after dark for a few hours.

Excessive Heat to Impact New Jersey Wednesday & Thursday

Heat Advisory valid from Noon Jun 08 for Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris, Ocean, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Warren, Western Monmouth [NJ] and Berks, Lehigh, Northampton [PA] until Jun 09, 8:00 PM.

Excessive Heat Warning from Noon Jun 08 for Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Northwestern Burlington [NJ] and New Castle [DE] and Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia [PA] until Jun 09 and 8:00 PM

Forecast:

96-99 on Wednesday across the area, isolated 100 degree reading possible

97-102 on Thursday, 100-102 has the best chance in the urban centers especially...

Heat Index Values higher...

Remember to drink plenty of fluids. During the warmer, daytime hours go to air-conditioned malls, libraries, movie theaters or any public place that is air conditioned. If a family member appears overheated, use cool compresses to cool skin. Do not hesitate to contact a physician if you have a health-related question.

Remember to check on elderly or home-bound neighbors, who may be susceptible to the effects of heat stress. Spend as much time as you can in cool surroundings. Use fans and air conditioners to cool your home. Slow down and take it easy. Physical activity produces extra body heat. Wear light-weight, light-colored, loose-fitting clothing made of a breathable fabric, such as cotton. Wear a hat or use an umbrella to protect your head and neck when you are outdoors. Drink plenty of water; don't wait until you are thirsty. By then, you may already be dehydrated. Watch what you eat. Avoid eating hot foods or heavy meals. Use your stove as little as possible (use a microwave instead) and cook during the coolest part of the day. Take cool baths or showers. Cool water can remove body heat 25 times faster than cool air.
Avoid drinking alcohol and soda, as these actually dehydrate you faster. Instead, drink water or sports drinks.

If you have heat stroke, this is how you can tell:

Mental confusion, delirium, chills, dizziness, loss of consciousness, convulsions or coma...

A body temperature of 105 degrees F or higher...

Hot, dry skin that may be red, mottled or bluish...

A strong, fast pulse....

Power Outages will be possible during the excessive heat Wednesday and Thursday. Transformers can fail from overheating. Transformers are built to dissipate their heat, but in extreme weather conditions with extreme heat, there is no ability to cool because temperatures remain high throughout the night. Problems are also magnified in the confined spaces of an underground electrical system. If there is a flaw or crack in the cable insulation, a short circuit could occur as the cables expand from the heat. Increased demand for air conditioning means more electricity flowing through electric lines. This causes them to heat up and expand or sag, and in some cases they sag into tree branches, causing a short circuit. They also can sag to the point where they can be caught by tractor trailors and the trailors pull the wires and related poles down. Some electric equipment is sensative to the heat knowing the consequences of certain temperatures. The equipment will automatically and safely shut down to protect itself and other equipment. High current causes stretching of cables, switches, and other equipment and can increase the size of minor flaws in insulation or connections. Electric equipment can be weakened by previous ice storms, severe thunderstorms, lightning, and wet snow events (all things we have seen earlier this year) causing circuit failures, making it more susceptible to an outage as it can no longer withstand the increased flow of electricity during periods of high demand.

Some Great Days Ahead, A Few Thunder Chances

Monmouth, Ocean, and Middlesex Counties reported some large hail on Wednesday with a cold front that robbed the atmosphere of the moisture in New Jersey. Today we had many areas with dew points as low as the upper thirties during the afternoon! There is no doubt today will go down as one of the best days of the season. Abundant sunshine, temperatures barely touching 80 degrees, very low humidity, and breezy…probably ending up in the top five spot for best days of the season...by the way the cold front had not yet pushed through Atlantic and Cape May Counties this morning and the result was slightly warmer readings as they started at a high value for the day.

Thunderstorm Chances:

Saturday Night through Sunday Night, chance is about 40%.

We might see a slight chance of a t-storm at some point during next week...but confidence is low at this time..

Otherwise...outside of the scattered downpour chance...it will be mainly dry. Noticing a trend this season (we will see if it holds)...most thunderstorm chances have been in Central and Eastern Pennsylvania into Northern New Jersey with some touching Central NJ at times.