Clipper To Bring Snow Today

A clipper system that will impact our region this afternoon into this evening is now located from Washington D.C. northward through Harrisburg. This system will continue to slowly move eastward today and move offshore tonight.

The computer models continue to indicate 0.01” to 0.10” of available liquid with this system with the higher end of that number towards our south. The recent radar trends of the system appear to show some filling in of the precipitation, so I do not see this falling apart. In fact, this could get a bit more potent as a bit of energy goes into the system. As it approaches the ocean, it may try to pull in some additional moisture...but the dynamics appear weak and the time to do this is very limited. It is interesting how well this system survived crossing the Appalachian Mountains.

Some areas may just pick up a dusting, but I continue to expect amounts of a coating to an inch in some places. Some amounts in excess of an inch could occur in Southern New Jersey. Temperatures are below freezing in most places and they may rise to around freezing. Atlantic and Cape May Counties are the only places where temperatures are above freezing. But should the intensity be heavy enough, evaporative cooling may make up for the lack of below freezing air at the surface.

The system will impact the region stating around noon and linger to about 5:00 or 6:00 tonight. This system is unfortunately timed for the afternoon into the evening commute.

This snowfall is not much, but the previous events this year with this nuisance snowfall have caused major headaches. One inch or less of snow will not keep people off the roadways and that is how we get more accidents and jams during these types of events. Since these coatings may not be uniform, I will put out a graphic highlighting the potential for periods of snow.

Nuisance Snow to Affect Afternoon and Evening Rush Hour

Another round of snow is likely on Friday. A clipper system will slowly progress into our region on Friday Afternoon. The clipper will be pushing offshore during the evening commute. The snowfall amounts will generally be under an inch for most areas. The North American Model from 00z shows that this system gives us 0.1” to .10” of liquid to work with. This model does show a little bit more moisture over Delaware with 0.10” to 0.25” of liquid to work with and this area could scrape Cape May County. The current radar does show the southern part of this clipper to be a bit more organized, so I could see why the model indicates the heaviest stuff the further south one lives or travels. The problem is that temperatures will be above freezing around Cape May, so I am not ruling out that rain cannot mix in. But if it should be snow, there could be amounts in excess of one inch in Extreme Southern New Jersey.

This will affect the evening commute and make it sluggish in many parts of the region. Temperatures will be around freezing or a bit above, so the snow could melt at first. But if there is a burst…some roads could turn icy or get a light coating. We have had several instances so far this year where a light snowfall resulted in numerous delays and accidents since most people do not avoid travel during nuisance storms.

1/27/2011 Extended Forecast: 3 More Snow Chances

Temperatures across the region tonight are plunging below the freezing mark. As a result, the melting snow and ice will refreeze on untreated surfaces. Unfortunately, the sunshine we saw today was limited by the clouds and several trees have retained quite a bit of snow and ice. More problems tonight can be expected with falling trees, especially with holly trees and pine trees.

A clipper will move through our region on Friday. Is system is located near Cleveland and Detroit. This will drive down to our south. This system will produce areas of snow showers or even a period of light snow. Temperatures will be around or just above freezing during the daytime hours, but the ground is cold enough, especially with snow-cover for there to be an additional coating of snowfall across the region. Some spots could even squeeze out an inch of snow. This system is unfortunately timed for the afternoon into the evening commute. Another clipper will move in for Saturday and that also has the potential to bring some more light snowfall to the area with very light accumulations of a coating to an inch. We may not see all snow along the coast. In addition, southern areas could escape the snow on Saturday as the best dynamics from the second event seem to target Northern and Central New Jersey.

This snowfall is not much, but the previous events this year with this nuisance snowfall have caused major headaches. One inch or less of snow will not keep people off the roadways and that is how we get more accidents and jams during these types of events. Since these coatings may not be uniform, I will put out a graphic highlighting the potential for periods of snow.

Sunday and Monday will be dry and will give us a break (brief) from the wintry weather. The snow on the ground will not be going anywhere as we may see temperatures only slightly above freezing.

Another middle of the week storm appears at the end of my five day forecast. At this point and time, some snow could begin Tuesday Night. I think the bulk of this storm will be on Wednesday…possibly extending into Thursday. The details of this storm are unclear as it is too far out. The models seem to indicate some wintry mix or more snow. Over the course of the next few days, we will see this storm bounce all over the place on the models and even disappear at times. The overall pattern in the end looks favorable for a winter storm.

The Wednesday snowstorm was another significant snowfall for the record books. For New York City it was the most single snow in January. In Philadelphia, it was the third biggest single snow in January. The amount of thunderstorms with system was impressive and rare. Strong upward-vertical motion produced the thundersnow and thundersleet. A strong thunderstorm off the coastline of Monmouth and Ocean Counties produced hail along the coastline in those counties as reported by trained weather spotters. That storm also exhibited some weak upper-level rotation on the radar imagery. Thunderstorms in the summer can drop one to two inches of rain, or more, in a period of time. Some were surprised by the impressive snowfall rates exceeding three inches per hour. It is the same concept in the winter, producing heavy precipitation amounts in a short period of time. So even with the ice and rain in the early evening hours, many quickly accumulated substantial snowfall accumulations. Snowfall ranged from 9 to 20 inches across the state with the highest amounts in Western New Jersey into Northern and Central New Jersey. The coastal areas saw less, particularly the southeast. This is because the center of the energy pivoted across Delaware and Cape May allowing for a dry slot to build in after temperatures cooled here.

Thousands Still Out of Power

Power outages this morning continue across Central and Southern New Jersey. The trees are loaded with the heavy, wet snow. The weight of the snow and ice is really taking a huge toll on the trees and wires. We have a few things going on here as explained by the utility companies. The earlier rain helped form a coating of ice around the lines. This has allowed this wet snow to stick easier to the wires. Therefore the weight has taken them down without a falling branch or tree. Second, the snow and ice surrounding the wires can sometimes interrupt the flow of electricity and cause shorts. Finally, the trees and tree branches are coming down with the weight. I would also believe that a car could slam into a pole and that could also cause an outage.

Snowfall totals were impressive. 10-15 inches (as mapped out here yesterday morning) seemed to be common in many places...with some areas exceeding that. At the shore...it was less...but still I don't think snow lovers in Atlantic City this season have been dissapointed! I will have full details later this morning.

Many schools are closed this morning with a handful of delays. Even many colleges are closed today.

Snow To End

The snow will end soon across New Jersey, likely within the next two or three hours.

The power outages continues to increase with several thousand now without power. The weight of the snow and ice is really taking a huge toll on the trees and wires. We have a few things going on here as explained by the utility companies. The earlier rain helped form a coating of ice around the lines. This has allowed this wet snow to stick easier to the wires. Therefore the weight has taken them down without a falling branch or tree. Second, the snow and ice surrounding the wires can sometimes interrupt the flow of electricity and cause shorts. Finally, the trees and tree branches are coming down with the weight. I would also believe that a car could slam into a pole and that could also cause an outage. Anyhow, this snow will not be going anywhere until a few hours after sunrise, so even when the snow stops….more things could give way. The snow, as television reports have reported on, has taken these wires and has buried them. This can make it challenging for snow plow operators.

The upward-vertical motion continues to produce thunderstorms. This has now shifted a bit towards Monmouth County and New York City. Over 150 lightning strikes have been reported with this system which is absolutely impressive. These thunderstorms have produced snowfall rates of up to four inches per hour. The snowfall rates of this intensity have made it almost impossible to maintain a passable roadway in many areas. Some cloud to ground strikes were reported which even more of a rare phenomenon.

We are going to hopefully see an end to the snowfall within the next few hours. It is becoming less and less persistent in Eastern Pennsylvania and this drying trend should extend into New Jersey in the next few hours. However, I am not going to rule out a persistent band trying to linger to 4:00 a.m. in the morning, especially in Burlington, Ocean, Middlesex, and Monmouth Counties.

Snowy and Windy...

Strong-upward vertical motion continues to produce thunderstorms across our region.

First we will hit the power outages. The latest outage maps are beginning to show a noticeable increase in power outages across New Jersey. This will become more and more of an issue as the wet snow piles up. The wet snow, ice, and sleet on the trees makes for the perfect combination. Our area has pine trees which love to come down in these conditions. Wires may become buried in the snowfall, so please be careful. I already saw some video of this tonight on our local stations.

Snowfall rates continue to be ranging from one to four inches per hour. Less down towards Cape May. We are starting to see the back-edge of this storm, but this is still several hours away from Philadelphia.

Windy conditions also continue. Winds continue to be sustained between 15 and 25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH. This is causing near-blizzard conditions.

Considerable blowing and drifting snow will be likely on Thursday.

Heavy Snow Over Us Now