Winter Storm Update

Snow is falling across portions of Southern New Jersey and Western New Jersey and we are already starting to see our first signs of narrow banding. The banding appears to be running somewhat north of the afternoon model guidance and will shift northward for a few hours, before it stops and eventually begins to move back to the south or hold. The 00z NAM guidance does seem to indicate that northward shift. The gradient with this banding is going to be quite narrow in some cases, although all areas south of Interstate 195 appear to be getting measurable snowfall.

The banding could have one to three inch per hour snowfall rates and even some rumbles of thunder. Meanwhile, temperatures have dropped into the upper twenties and lower thirties in every location where precipitation is expected. While there still could be some sleet in Cape May County, it is looking more and more like it will be snow for everyone as Wildwood is down to 32 degrees and temperatures will only hold their ground or drop as a northerly flow pulls in even colder air. Initially, this will be a wet snow with borderline temperatures and it will end with drier snow. The wet snow could cause some power outages where it is around 32 degrees as it snows.

South of 195:

A general two to four inch snowfall is expected, but there will be this band of 3 to 6 inches of snow. Localized eight inch amounts cannot be ruled out.

Winter Storm Tonight in South Jersey

A winter storm warning has been issued for Camden, Gloucester, Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem Counties. The criteria in these counties is for four or more inches of snow & sleet.

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Burlington and Ocean Counties. The criteria in these counties is two inches, but not more than four inches of snow & sleet.

Power outages are possible tonight in any location that observes more than three inches of snow since it will be a very wet snow.

Temperatures Rising After Light Icing

The new temperatures in at 11:00 a.m. show that many areas in Central and Southern New Jersey are now at 33 degrees, barely above freezing. I see these temperatures rising very minimally throughout the afternoon in these locations. There are still a few pockets where temperatures are at 32 degrees and hence the winter weather advisory has been continued for this region. Sussex, Warren, and Morris Counties are still in the upper twenties at this hour. These three counties will experience a prolonged period of freezing rain and freezing drizzle into the afternoon. As I had mentioned last night, the light icing would likely lead to numerous accidents because many would believe it is a minor event and not take precautions. There were numerous vehicle accidents early this morning.

Jersey Central Power and Light's outage map did show a few counties with 501-2000 customers without power. I am not sure if this is the result of vehciles hitting poles or if there is just enough icing to bring down some branches.

2/4/2011 Extended Forecast: Wintry Mix, 2 More Storms

Another wintry mess is about to strike. Sussex, Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Union, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Monmouth, Middlesex, Hunterdon, Somerset, Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties are under a winter weather advisory on Saturday. South of Interstate 195, the advisory expires by midday. Up north, it expires late Saturday Night. The snow amounts will be minimal in comparison with other storms. However, the freezing rain criterion is a trace for an advisory and these amounts will definitely be realized across the advisory area. A trace of freezing rain can cause widespread accidents and bring things to a halt. In fact, these minor events can be more hazardous as many usually do not stay home…especially with ice as many just believe it is liquid rain falling.

Initially, there could be a brief period of wet snow. This period of snow is going to be limited if the latest model guidance is correct. I think there will be a quick transition to sleet and rain. In the advisory areas, temperatures on Saturday Morning will hover around the freezing mark or remain slightly below that which poses a risk for the rain freezing on services. The below freezing temperatures could linger for the entire event on Saturday in Northwest New Jersey. The high resolution models indicate temperatures rising to about 33 or 34 degrees in the interior of Central and Southern New Jersey, so this will be a close call. At this point, I will put out an ice map. There could be a lull around mid-afternoon as an upper-level low pressure area that delivered a rare winter storm to southern Texas comes in.

The models are slower with the intensification of a coastal storm as I look at the 18z suite. This means that only snow showers will occur as the storm pulls away and we contend with an upper level low of energy that may yet combine to form a true coastal storm by that time. Northern New Jersey still has the potential to pick up an inch or two of snow as the system pulls away. This area of snow could perhaps extend into portions of Central New Jersey. The GFS also shows that initially the low would be inland, so this would in fact help with a warm push of air into New Jersey unlike previous solutions which had the low offshore when passing out latitude. At this present time, I will put out a map indicating where the best potential lies for a light snow accumulation.

Please look for updates on Saturday as this system affects New Jersey. Refresh your browser frequently tomorrow.

Sunday and Monday will be tranquil. Tuesday is appearing to be more active on the latest computer model guidance. A front will move through our region with an area of low pressure developing on it. This could cause a six hour period of steady, accumulating snow. The timing of the frontal energy would be critical as if the front lags behind, we initially would have more rain than snow. The 18z suite of models shows the cold air catching up to us before the balk of the precipitation. This frontal passage will have to be monitored for interaction with moisture coming up from Florida to see if it would generate a coastal low or intensify a low forming on the front further. The frontal passage could usher in some fairly good wind gusts.

On Thursday, the computer models today backed off on a solution that indicated the potential for a significant winter storm with primarily snow. This is typical of long range models and my guess would be that overtime it may shift this storm back to a coastal solution or even bring it inland further. The Tuesday event must pass us by before we can get specific details on this system. Climatology wise, there is definitely reason to believe something could be in the pipeline. The 18z GFS by the way shows the area completely dry for Thursday and Friday of next week. This storm is out of the five day forecast range, but there have been many questions about it considering the concern raised yesterday by those that focus on the long range when some of the guidance had a serious snowfall on paper. So it is worth mentioning here that I will be watching it.

Quick Update...Advisories Expanded

The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include Monmouth County and Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties.

Stay tuned throughout the evening for updates....more in-depth coverage tonight.

Wintry Mix For Saturday Update

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Mercer, Passaic, Bergen, Union, Essex, and Middlesex Counties. This is where there is the greatest the chance of freezing rain and snow accumulations that meet the advisory criteria.

It will be a close call elsewhere. Daytime highs in the mid thirties continue to be expected on my end for the entire region, including the non-advisory areas. This likely means that some additional areas may be included in later advisories for some freezing rain in the morning.

The models also show a drop in temperature later in the evening as the storm pulls away. There still is a chance for an inch or two of snow on the back-side, especially in Northern and Central New Jersey if things work out perfectly.

For now, I have included the WRF model which shows the temperatures during the midday hours with the event. I have also included a graphic showing the advisory area. Later today, I will post more information...including a snow and ice total graphic.

Changeover Working North Slowly

As of 12:00 a.m., Millville is now 32 degrees. However, freezing rain is still reported.

Atlantic City is now over to rain with a temperature of 35 degrees.

Here is the latest temperatures & radar image. Another update in one hour.

The National Weather Service has now expanded the winter weather advisory to include Southeastern Burlington and Atlantic Counties.

Wintry Mess Begins Across New Jersey

Mount Holly: Snow
Wrightstown: Snow
Trenton: Snow
Lakehurst: Snow
Somerville: Snow
Newark: Snow
Atlantic City: (Airport is inland from coast) Snow

Millville: Freezing Rain.

Doppler radar shows the line between snow and freezing rain & sleet is just south of the Atlantic City Expressway and east of the Garden State Parkway. This line will move from southeast to northeast throughout the early morning hours of Tuesday. Temperatures will rise slowly in interior Southern New Jersey and Central New Jersey. The greatest icing will occur along the Delaware River where the coldest air will hold the longest.

Remember, freezing rain is very hazardous. Even a trace of ice can cause numerous accidents and no traction. If it is raining and the temperature is 32 or below, it is likely freezing rain.

Northwestern Burlington, Monmouth, Mercer, Ocean, Camden, Gloucester, Cumberland, and Salem Counties remain under a winter weather advisory through Tuesday Morning for hazardous weather conditions due to the snow and ice. The criteria for a winter weather advisory is 2 or more inches of snow, but not more than four inches of snow or a trace to 0.24" inches of ice.

These are the things that we have going for a cold air damming situation:

-Snow cover on the ground.
-Cold ocean water temperatures
-Snow cover down to the south in unusual locations
-Coastal Storm forming to our east which is the colder side of the storm.