Another wintry mess is about to strike. Sussex, Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Union, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Monmouth, Middlesex, Hunterdon, Somerset, Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties are under a winter weather advisory on Saturday. South of Interstate 195, the advisory expires by midday. Up north, it expires late Saturday Night. The snow amounts will be minimal in comparison with other storms. However, the freezing rain criterion is a trace for an advisory and these amounts will definitely be realized across the advisory area. A trace of freezing rain can cause widespread accidents and bring things to a halt. In fact, these minor events can be more hazardous as many usually do not stay home…especially with ice as many just believe it is liquid rain falling.
Initially, there could be a brief period of wet snow. This period of snow is going to be limited if the latest model guidance is correct. I think there will be a quick transition to sleet and rain. In the advisory areas, temperatures on Saturday Morning will hover around the freezing mark or remain slightly below that which poses a risk for the rain freezing on services. The below freezing temperatures could linger for the entire event on Saturday in Northwest New Jersey. The high resolution models indicate temperatures rising to about 33 or 34 degrees in the interior of Central and Southern New Jersey, so this will be a close call. At this point, I will put out an ice map. There could be a lull around mid-afternoon as an upper-level low pressure area that delivered a rare winter storm to southern Texas comes in.
The models are slower with the intensification of a coastal storm as I look at the 18z suite. This means that only snow showers will occur as the storm pulls away and we contend with an upper level low of energy that may yet combine to form a true coastal storm by that time. Northern New Jersey still has the potential to pick up an inch or two of snow as the system pulls away. This area of snow could perhaps extend into portions of Central New Jersey. The GFS also shows that initially the low would be inland, so this would in fact help with a warm push of air into New Jersey unlike previous solutions which had the low offshore when passing out latitude. At this present time, I will put out a map indicating where the best potential lies for a light snow accumulation.
Please look for updates on Saturday as this system affects New Jersey. Refresh your browser frequently tomorrow.
Sunday and Monday will be tranquil. Tuesday is appearing to be more active on the latest computer model guidance. A front will move through our region with an area of low pressure developing on it. This could cause a six hour period of steady, accumulating snow. The timing of the frontal energy would be critical as if the front lags behind, we initially would have more rain than snow. The 18z suite of models shows the cold air catching up to us before the balk of the precipitation. This frontal passage will have to be monitored for interaction with moisture coming up from Florida to see if it would generate a coastal low or intensify a low forming on the front further. The frontal passage could usher in some fairly good wind gusts.
On Thursday, the computer models today backed off on a solution that indicated the potential for a significant winter storm with primarily snow. This is typical of long range models and my guess would be that overtime it may shift this storm back to a coastal solution or even bring it inland further. The Tuesday event must pass us by before we can get specific details on this system. Climatology wise, there is definitely reason to believe something could be in the pipeline. The 18z GFS by the way shows the area completely dry for Thursday and Friday of next week. This storm is out of the five day forecast range, but there have been many questions about it considering the concern raised yesterday by those that focus on the long range when some of the guidance had a serious snowfall on paper. So it is worth mentioning here that I will be watching it.
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