Hunterdon and Morris Counties Hardest Hit Today

In Hunterdon County (New Jersey), a funnel cloud was reported in Alexandria Township. In Morris County, a funnel cloud was reported in Chester Township. In Passaic County, an impressive three funnel clouds were spotted at one time in Wayne Township. There were trees and power lines knocked down in Hunterdon and Morris Counties, including in Alexandria Township. WNBC in New York is reporting possible tornado damage in Denville Township, but the National Weather Service reports that they believe it was thunderstorm wind damage. Jersey Central Power and Light’s online outage map did show several thousand in that area without power at one point in these areas. Of course, we will keep you updated if there is a report of an actual tornado touchdown in this area.

Anthony Gigi told NJ.Com the following: "The reports that we are getting are more consistent with a severe thunderstorm rather than a tornado. We’re not seeing hundreds of trees down or roofs ripped off of homes," Gigi said.

The storm prompted tornado warnings for several North-Central New Jersey and Northeastern New Jersey counties due to strong rotation being detected on doppler radar.

Breaking News: Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
NJC019-041-PAC017-095-281530-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0001.110428T1458Z-110428T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 1057 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FERNDALE...
OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAMPTON...GLEN GARDNER...HIGH BRIDGE AND WASHINGTON BY 1105 AM
EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 7500 4065 7485 4050 7520 4058 7528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 230DEG 83KT 4060 7512

$$

GORSE

Dangerous Severe Weather Threat Today: Tornado Risk

I hate to be so to the point, but this is a severe weather day for New Jersey. Severe thunderstorms are maintaining their intensity and will regain some of their strength now that the sunshine is up. The severe thunderstorms are presently across Central Maryland and Virginia into Central Pennsylvania. You want to monitor the storm cells to our southwest and those that pop-up ahead of the line.

The super cell composite and tornado composite is off the charts for New Jersey standards. Confidence of at least one tornado in the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas is high for me. I think there is a decent chance of 2 or more tornadoes as well within 25 or 50 miles of a point. The primary risk is damaging wind gusts, but tornadoes are possible along with large hail.

Throughout the morning and afternoon, please stay with NOAA Weather Radio for the latest weather information or a local media source. Take action if a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning is issued for the region. I encourage school officials and other public safety officials to think about taking action if a severe weather watch is issued. Some sunshine has been poking through the clouds in parts of New Jersey and this is just self-destructing.

Concern for Severe Wx Continues

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today across much of New Jersey. The North American Model indicates the highest chances for thunderstorms in Western New Jersey. While many areas will remain dry, where the thunderstorms develop could be problematic. The thunderstorms may contain heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and hail. The western fringes of New Jersey, especially Northwestern New Jersey, are under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms with the remainder of New Jersey in a “see text” risk of severe thunderstorms. This will constantly be readjusted throughout the afternoon by the Storm Prediction Center.

Confidence continues to increase that there will be a significant severe weather and heavy rainfall situation developing across New Jersey on Thursday. The computer modeling has been in agreement about a potential severe weather outbreak for our region since Saturday Night. This kind of consistency is rarely seen during severe weather season. It is also notable that the slight risk designation for all of New Jersey has been placed over our region as far as three days out. The Global Forecast System model seems to have a much better handle on the overall threat this time around and it is probably because the timing on the GFS seems more reasonable and is also more in line with the likely daytime heating before the arrival of the thunderstorms. The strong winds will be increasing aloft with the strengthening low over the Great Lakes driving the potent cold front eastward. With the wind fields strong aloft, heavy convection should be able to drag the strong winds to the surface in the form of downdrafts.

If the GFS is correct with its indication that at least a weak meso-frontal wave of low pressure develops along the front, the helicity values would increase and combine with the unusually strong unidirectional shear to form favorable conditions for isolated tornadoes. This storm system has been responsible for numerous tornado outbreaks this week and the history does strike me as interesting. However, several systems have been known to fizzle east of the Appalachian’s and thus this logic applied just by itself would fail most of the time if solely used. However, here in this situation, a combination of scientific factors makes it seem reasonable to allow for isolated tornadoes even here in New Jersey on Thursday. The sad truth is that there could be one tornado the entire day and yet if it impacts a populated area…it would be a much talked about and likely more serious scenario. I don’t think we will see a major tornado outbreak at this present time or strong, long-lived tornadoes. What is unfolding in the Tennessee Valley won’t happen here to that degree. But weak ones do kill and we can see some of the tomorrow. The strongest tornado ever to occur in New Jersey was a F3 tornado and therefore history would argue against it.

The severe weather threat we face tomorrow will be affected by the amount of daytime heating. Any ongoing thunderstorms moving ahead of the front could arrive as early as Thursday Morning, but some models are not showing this to be widespread during the night. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean we would escape the cloud debris from the leftover storm cells. This will have to be taken into account early in the morning on Thursday when we know for sure. But, given the dynamics in place, I still am confidence of a nasty thunderstorm situation transpiring without the best sunshine. Given the situation, should we sunshine on Thursday, it would only be self-destructive.

A flash flood watch was issued for Northeastern New Jersey with a flood watch issued for the Raritan River Valley. This is the area that has been the most vulnerable for weeks as repeated heavy rain events and major crests have centered on and around this area. The models are suggesting an inch to two inches of rain tomorrow, much of which is occurring in less than 8 hours. Therefore, flooding and flash flooding is possible. Flash flood guidance suggests 1 to 2 inches is needed for flash flooding in much of North and Central New Jersey. 3 to 4 inches of rain is needed in Southern New Jersey. The front will slow down quite a bit on Thursday and therefore thunderstorms could train over the same areas allowing for localized pockets of excessive rain, perhaps in excess of the 1 to 2 inch range that is forecasted for a widespread geographical area.

Active 48 Hours

It will be a very busy few days as several rounds of thunderstorms will be affecting the region. The first is currently in progress and will skirt Northwestern New Jersey late tonight with a short term damaging wind potential.

On Wednesday, additional thunderstorm development will likely initiate well ahead of the cold front to our west that will be responsible for incredible tornado outbreaks and damaging wind events in the Ohio River Valley southward through the Gulf Coast. The thunderstorms will likely be scattered in nature on Wednesday. Parts of New Jersey have been placed under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center.

On Thursday, a more organized severe weather threat is expected as the cold front actually moves through the region. We are currently under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes are quite likely if the thunderstorms develop. Timing means everything and the models are diverging on when the storms roll through.

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely on Thursday...May Include Tornado Potential

It is early on Tuesday Morning. I have been up very early into the morning analiyzing some of the latest computer model guidance regarding a potential dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms on Thursday. On paper, I haven’t seen such a good possibility of severe thunderstorms since the outbreak last summer which brought a 76 MPH wind gust to Philadelphia International Airport.

Damaging wind gusts on Thursday look like a very good possibility at this present time. However, the computer model guidance also is suggesting a lot of key players that would also make tornadoes a possibility. This is three days out and a lot could change. However, if the current projections are handling the event correctly, it appears there will be a lot of shear in place that would allow for the development of tornadoes, in addition to damaging winds and large hail. Not everyone will see damaging wind gusts or a tornado as is usually the case. But there could very well be more reports than usual of these elements.

The North American Model is currently the most robust with the potential of severe weather and that is because the time frame of this activity has it arriving in the late afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating is maximized. The Global Forecast System model is earlier with the arrival of the thunderstorms, around early afternoon. However, even this model is showing some pretty nasty thunderstorm development.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning is possible. The warm and humid conditions will make for ripe conditions for thunderstorm development, especially the more sunshine we observed prior to the thunderstorms on Thursday.

We may have scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday which will be the result of tropical moisture being pulled into the region from a disturbance that will be over the Atlantic Ocean. The tropical disturbance could enhance some thunderstorms in parts of the region on Wednesday afternoon and while scattered, heavy rainfall perhaps to excessive amounts locally will be possible. Should we see decent heating prior to that time, some of the thunderstorms may even become severe.

Isolated Thunderstorms Later Today

A warm front is currently lifting through North-Central New Jersey, with plenty of sunshine to the south of the boundary.

Despite increasing instability with daytime heating---I don't see too many things out there to trigger thunderstorms here in New Jersey. I think the primary threat for thunderstorms will be in Pennsylvania today. However, a sea breeze front or bay breeze front could initiate an isolated t-storm. With the warm front lifting northward, a hidden boundary riding along it may also pose a risk for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

The 06z GFS was a bit more robust with the thunderstorm chances for today, compared to the 12z NAM. Any thunderstorm that does form, could potentially produce strong gusty winds, hail, and dangerous lightning. Otherwise it will be a sunny day with warm and humid conditions. Some southern sections may inch towards the 90 degree mark.