Severe Weather Outbreak Likely on Thursday...May Include Tornado Potential

It is early on Tuesday Morning. I have been up very early into the morning analiyzing some of the latest computer model guidance regarding a potential dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms on Thursday. On paper, I haven’t seen such a good possibility of severe thunderstorms since the outbreak last summer which brought a 76 MPH wind gust to Philadelphia International Airport.

Damaging wind gusts on Thursday look like a very good possibility at this present time. However, the computer model guidance also is suggesting a lot of key players that would also make tornadoes a possibility. This is three days out and a lot could change. However, if the current projections are handling the event correctly, it appears there will be a lot of shear in place that would allow for the development of tornadoes, in addition to damaging winds and large hail. Not everyone will see damaging wind gusts or a tornado as is usually the case. But there could very well be more reports than usual of these elements.

The North American Model is currently the most robust with the potential of severe weather and that is because the time frame of this activity has it arriving in the late afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating is maximized. The Global Forecast System model is earlier with the arrival of the thunderstorms, around early afternoon. However, even this model is showing some pretty nasty thunderstorm development.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning is possible. The warm and humid conditions will make for ripe conditions for thunderstorm development, especially the more sunshine we observed prior to the thunderstorms on Thursday.

We may have scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday which will be the result of tropical moisture being pulled into the region from a disturbance that will be over the Atlantic Ocean. The tropical disturbance could enhance some thunderstorms in parts of the region on Wednesday afternoon and while scattered, heavy rainfall perhaps to excessive amounts locally will be possible. Should we see decent heating prior to that time, some of the thunderstorms may even become severe.