Colder Start To Winter Weather Event?

The clouds have had a great difficulty building into our region so far and now just hours away from the start of precipitation, we still have some breaks in the clouds being reported. The clear conditions have allowed temperatures to drop very well north of the Atlantic City Expressway with lower and mid-twenties for current temperatures. This suggests a colder start to the temperatures when the precipitation arrives. This probably means the column of air will be colder higher up, allowing for a more prolonged period of sleet mixing with freezing rain than just freezing rain. It still is not cold enough all the way up for much more than an hour of snow. We were expecting to start off from 28 or 29 degrees by dawn. Now we are starting off at 20 to 23 degrees in some cases. A southerly wind will cause the temperatures to rise ever so often once it kicks in. But the recovery may be slower than expected. It can be a substantial rise with a nice, persistent southerly flow...but the winds don't look to strong...hmmmm....

On the other side of the aisle is that the later start time means more precipitation will be falling as daylight comes upon us and usually any frozen precipitation has more difficulty sticking and temperatures respond faster when there is some solar radiation. This idea could have some merit to it and counter the fact that we have seen a significant drop in temperature tonight.

As of 11:54 p.m.:

21 in Wrightstown
23 in Mount Holly
23 in Southampton
20 in Lakehurst
28 in Belmar
33 in Atlantic City
33 in Millville
15 in Somerville
13 in Morristown
24 in Trenton
28 in Newark

2/4/2011 Extended Forecast: Wintry Mix, 2 More Storms

Another wintry mess is about to strike. Sussex, Warren, Morris, Bergen, Passaic, Union, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Monmouth, Middlesex, Hunterdon, Somerset, Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties are under a winter weather advisory on Saturday. South of Interstate 195, the advisory expires by midday. Up north, it expires late Saturday Night. The snow amounts will be minimal in comparison with other storms. However, the freezing rain criterion is a trace for an advisory and these amounts will definitely be realized across the advisory area. A trace of freezing rain can cause widespread accidents and bring things to a halt. In fact, these minor events can be more hazardous as many usually do not stay home…especially with ice as many just believe it is liquid rain falling.

Initially, there could be a brief period of wet snow. This period of snow is going to be limited if the latest model guidance is correct. I think there will be a quick transition to sleet and rain. In the advisory areas, temperatures on Saturday Morning will hover around the freezing mark or remain slightly below that which poses a risk for the rain freezing on services. The below freezing temperatures could linger for the entire event on Saturday in Northwest New Jersey. The high resolution models indicate temperatures rising to about 33 or 34 degrees in the interior of Central and Southern New Jersey, so this will be a close call. At this point, I will put out an ice map. There could be a lull around mid-afternoon as an upper-level low pressure area that delivered a rare winter storm to southern Texas comes in.

The models are slower with the intensification of a coastal storm as I look at the 18z suite. This means that only snow showers will occur as the storm pulls away and we contend with an upper level low of energy that may yet combine to form a true coastal storm by that time. Northern New Jersey still has the potential to pick up an inch or two of snow as the system pulls away. This area of snow could perhaps extend into portions of Central New Jersey. The GFS also shows that initially the low would be inland, so this would in fact help with a warm push of air into New Jersey unlike previous solutions which had the low offshore when passing out latitude. At this present time, I will put out a map indicating where the best potential lies for a light snow accumulation.

Please look for updates on Saturday as this system affects New Jersey. Refresh your browser frequently tomorrow.

Sunday and Monday will be tranquil. Tuesday is appearing to be more active on the latest computer model guidance. A front will move through our region with an area of low pressure developing on it. This could cause a six hour period of steady, accumulating snow. The timing of the frontal energy would be critical as if the front lags behind, we initially would have more rain than snow. The 18z suite of models shows the cold air catching up to us before the balk of the precipitation. This frontal passage will have to be monitored for interaction with moisture coming up from Florida to see if it would generate a coastal low or intensify a low forming on the front further. The frontal passage could usher in some fairly good wind gusts.

On Thursday, the computer models today backed off on a solution that indicated the potential for a significant winter storm with primarily snow. This is typical of long range models and my guess would be that overtime it may shift this storm back to a coastal solution or even bring it inland further. The Tuesday event must pass us by before we can get specific details on this system. Climatology wise, there is definitely reason to believe something could be in the pipeline. The 18z GFS by the way shows the area completely dry for Thursday and Friday of next week. This storm is out of the five day forecast range, but there have been many questions about it considering the concern raised yesterday by those that focus on the long range when some of the guidance had a serious snowfall on paper. So it is worth mentioning here that I will be watching it.

Quick Update...Advisories Expanded

The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include Monmouth County and Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties.

Stay tuned throughout the evening for updates....more in-depth coverage tonight.

Wintry Mix For Saturday Update

A winter weather advisory has been issued for Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Mercer, Passaic, Bergen, Union, Essex, and Middlesex Counties. This is where there is the greatest the chance of freezing rain and snow accumulations that meet the advisory criteria.

It will be a close call elsewhere. Daytime highs in the mid thirties continue to be expected on my end for the entire region, including the non-advisory areas. This likely means that some additional areas may be included in later advisories for some freezing rain in the morning.

The models also show a drop in temperature later in the evening as the storm pulls away. There still is a chance for an inch or two of snow on the back-side, especially in Northern and Central New Jersey if things work out perfectly.

For now, I have included the WRF model which shows the temperatures during the midday hours with the event. I have also included a graphic showing the advisory area. Later today, I will post more information...including a snow and ice total graphic.

2/3/2011 Extended Forecast: Wintry Mix/Rain on Saturday

It will be a wintry mix for Saturday, not all snow if the current computer model guidance remains consistent in later runs. We will be on the “colder side” of an area of low pressure passing to our east. However, it is not a terribly intense low pressure system and therefore it will have difficulty producing colder air. The air mass that will be in place will not consist of below freezing temperatures throughout the entire column except at the onset and at the very end of this coastal storm.

Expect precipitation to break out on Saturday Morning as a period of snow and sleet. The precipitation will transition to rain. Temperatures at the surface could be below freezing... and the earlier the start time, the better the potential for a brief period of freezing rain. The wintry mix will hold the longest in Northwestern New Jersey. Sussex County is under a winter storm watch as some more significant icing and several inches of snow may occur there. Everyone may see a period of snow or snow showers as the system moves to our north and east and pulls away which would drag in some colder air. An inch or two of snow may occur on the backside of this, especially in Northern and Central New Jersey. The only thing that I could see happen with this.... if there is a colder solution.... is that there could be more of a prolonged period of sleet or freezing rain than currently forecast. I think the models could be overdoing the warm air during the most intense part of the event as an eastern storm track normally wouldn’t draw up such a flow.

If there is rain, we could see up to an inch. Some more snow would melt, so some more big puddles are possible.

We may have some snow showers on Tuesday as a system passes by to our north. I think this system will bring a threat of strong winds behind it.

A more significant trouble maker is lurking for late next week. This storm has the potential to be loaded with moisture.

2/2/2011 Extended Forecast: Another Wintry Mix

Windy conditions this evening have the potential to cause problems. Many trees in Northern and Central New Jersey still have some icing on them. The weight of the snow and ice with the past few storms has caused a lot of branches to break and trees to lean. Any strong winds could take these branches and trees holding up by a thin needle and knock them to the ground causing power outages. Wind gusts could approach 40 MPH tonight with sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 MPH. The cold air will rush in quickly behind the cold front so anything that is slushy or wet will refreeze. Temperatures will drop below freezing after 10:00 p.m. and be ten degrees below freezing on early Thursday Morning. The front is moving through between now and 8:00 p.m.

Thursday into Friday Evening will be dry as high pressure maintains control of our weather. While it may be cold, I expect no weather problems.

Another winter storm is expected for Saturday across New Jersey. The winter storm will be different than this past one in terms of track. This time it will be a coastal storm that will come up the coastline. The models have been wobbling the track of the low pressure area and the exact track will be important. Some models have shown the low tracking up through New Jersey while others have it within 30 miles offshore of Atlantic City. Regardless, the “540 Line” is pushed back into Eastern Central Pennsylvania and then is swung through New Jersey at the end of the storm. It would appear we would be on the “colder side” of the storm. However, the air on the “colder side” of the storm may not be sufficient for all snow. To get all snow, the coastal storm probably needs to be further off the coast and intensify much more rapidly. At the present time, it looks like the storm will not be strong enough to produce a large amount of cold air over New Jersey that is supportive of snow at all levels for the entire length of the event.

It would appear to me that we may have a brief period of wet snow, followed by sleet and freezing rain. There could be more sleet in this situation. I do not think there will be a good push of mild air this time around. There just will not be a way from a good push of southeast oceanic air. There could be some liquid rain as well, but it may be a tricky call here and more confined to Southeastern New Jersey this go around. The best chance for accumulating snow will be as the “540 Line” swings back through to the coast as the storm finishes up. It will not be like the storm a week ago which gave us significant snow on the back part, but there could be an inch or two for everyone during the final three or four hours of the system. I think there will be a much better idea of the temperature profile of both aloft and at the surface on Thursday Evening.

Ice Storm Power Outages....While 55 Degrees in Southern Areas

Dense fog has been reported across Central and Southern New Jersey now that the steady rain has ended. The fog formation is the result of warmer temperatures moving over the cold surface, which is covered with snow and ice in most cases. The fog is thriving off moisture low to the ground. A disturbance moving through later today will bring drier air and this will hopefully scour out the fog.

In the meantime, ice is caked onto trees and power lines very well in Northern and Central New Jersey where a severe ice storm moved through earlier this morning. Temperatures are rising a few degrees above the freezing point, but this is not enough of a rise for the ice to melt. Therefore, many wires have snapped along with tree branches. Even some trees are coming down. The result has been numerous power outages across Northern and Central New Jersey. Middlesex County continues to report the largest number of customers out. The outages are affecting both Jersey Central Power & Light and Public Service Electric & Gas. Until the sunshine can hit these trees, which looks like it may not happen until tomorrow, these trees will remain cakes in ice. As mentioned in a previous post, winds will pick up to 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH. These factors point to a prolonged period of trees and wires continuing to fall down. With the end of steady freezing rain, the road conditions will improve as salt is used to treat these areas. However, falling trees and power lines will still make some roads impassable.

The temperature profile is just amazing right now. It is near 55 degrees in extreme South Jersey while North Jersey is barely making it to 32 degrees.