Windy conditions this evening have the potential to cause problems. Many trees in Northern and Central New Jersey still have some icing on them. The weight of the snow and ice with the past few storms has caused a lot of branches to break and trees to lean. Any strong winds could take these branches and trees holding up by a thin needle and knock them to the ground causing power outages. Wind gusts could approach 40 MPH tonight with sustained wind speeds of 15 to 25 MPH. The cold air will rush in quickly behind the cold front so anything that is slushy or wet will refreeze. Temperatures will drop below freezing after 10:00 p.m. and be ten degrees below freezing on early Thursday Morning. The front is moving through between now and 8:00 p.m.
Thursday into Friday Evening will be dry as high pressure maintains control of our weather. While it may be cold, I expect no weather problems.
Another winter storm is expected for Saturday across New Jersey. The winter storm will be different than this past one in terms of track. This time it will be a coastal storm that will come up the coastline. The models have been wobbling the track of the low pressure area and the exact track will be important. Some models have shown the low tracking up through New Jersey while others have it within 30 miles offshore of Atlantic City. Regardless, the “540 Line” is pushed back into Eastern Central Pennsylvania and then is swung through New Jersey at the end of the storm. It would appear we would be on the “colder side” of the storm. However, the air on the “colder side” of the storm may not be sufficient for all snow. To get all snow, the coastal storm probably needs to be further off the coast and intensify much more rapidly. At the present time, it looks like the storm will not be strong enough to produce a large amount of cold air over New Jersey that is supportive of snow at all levels for the entire length of the event.
It would appear to me that we may have a brief period of wet snow, followed by sleet and freezing rain. There could be more sleet in this situation. I do not think there will be a good push of mild air this time around. There just will not be a way from a good push of southeast oceanic air. There could be some liquid rain as well, but it may be a tricky call here and more confined to Southeastern New Jersey this go around. The best chance for accumulating snow will be as the “540 Line” swings back through to the coast as the storm finishes up. It will not be like the storm a week ago which gave us significant snow on the back part, but there could be an inch or two for everyone during the final three or four hours of the system. I think there will be a much better idea of the temperature profile of both aloft and at the surface on Thursday Evening.
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