2/6/2011 Extended Forecast: Watching 2 Systems

Tonight, it will be a perfect night if you are traveling to watch the Super Bowl with friends. There will only be some high clouds increasing across the region. Temperatures should drop into the teens in Northwestern New Jersey and lower twenties elsewhere. On Monday, we will see increasing cloudiness in our region ahead of the next storm system.

A strong cold front will be crossing the area into Tuesday Morning. The latest NAM Model from 18z does not show a very aggressive development of a wave of low pressure along the boundary. The result is very little liquid to work with. In addition, it does not show the energy from Florida phasing together to ring out some moisture along the Middle Atlantic Coast. The best chance of precipitation and coldest temperatures are clearly in Northwest New Jersey on this model run. However, the 12z GFS Model showed a stronger wave along the front and interaction with energy coming up from the Southeastern United States which would result in a light accumulation of snow for just about everyone. On this GFS run from 12z, the colder air does arrive before the bulk of the precipitation with the “540 Line” well offshore. At this very moment, I will continue to forecast precipitation for very late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. At this point, a rain and snow mix may transition to wet snow and sleet before ending. The question will be how intense and widespread is the thumping of snow as the system pulls away. Since there is quite a bit of uncertainty, I will not be developing a snow map tonight. However, the 12z GFS run does grab my attention that a few inches of snow is possible across parts of New Jersey if everything fell into line just perfectly.

The winds will be quite strong behind the front and temperatures will drop from early morning highs. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are likely in the system’s wake as colder air advection continues to rush into the Garden State. This may take down some weaker trees and weaker tree limbs, especially with the recent wet snow and icing.

Many have been going absolutely bonkers over two pieces of energy that will begin to approach the Eastern United States on Thursday, but at the present time I have nothing to be too excited about. I have not been too excited about this storm since it appeared on the models. Even if we get a storm, I don’t think it will be the biggest one of the season. Time to face reality perhaps…we have seen more snow this season than we typically get and the amounts have pushed our climate sites to above average for the season. The latest ECMWF and GFS guidance shows the system continuing to pass to our south and east. This season we have seen many storms disappear only to come back to haunt us. The Boxing Day Snowstorm which shutdown New Jersey gave us forty-eight hour notice. We have seen the storms tracks shift further to the north and west with time as well this season. However, as I look at the situation, I see perhaps the North Atlantic Oscillation trending more positive which precludes storminess. The reliable models also don’t suggest sharpness to the flow which is critical to have for a turn up the coast and decent phasing. It remains a rule of thumb that I typically do not forecast any precipitation when the American models just do not see it happening at any degree. Even with the Boxing Day Snowstorm, the models had at least some liquid to work with. Given that a potent storm usually arrives prior to a pattern change, as I spoke about in yesterday’s extended forecast, I think it is still wise to forecast a low chance for snow. This decision also weighs the fact that we see north and west shifts overtime this season. The low chance is figured into the choice of the icon arrangement centered on Thursday with a call for an overcast sky and a smaller snow icon. If the 12z GFS is dead on, we would be dealing with a lot of sunshine. We need to wait until Tuesday Night before this can be totally written off.

If you are putting money on it, I think Tuesday has far more potential to bring accumulating snowfall than Thursday.

A bigger storm would mean a fairly good encounter with Arctic Air Thursday into Saturday as it would leave snow cover behind and establish a strong northwest flow as the system would intensify to our north and east. If this does not happen, we will see an outbreak of cold air, but not as harsh. Right now the ends of the week temperatures reflect the not as harsh solution.

60 or better mid to later portions of next week?

Watching The Next System for Monday Late-Tuesday

A strong cold front will cross the area on Monday Night into Tuesday. It is appearing as though most of the precipitation will fall after the colder air arrives. This means that we could be dealing with some snow squalls or snow/sleet showers that could end up giving us a six hour period of light snow and sleet accumulation. Before that cold air advection comes in, we have the chance for rain or rain and snow showers.

The models seem to hint at low pressure developing along this front as it crosses our region which would intensify the precipitation along the boundary. This frontal passage will have to be monitored for interaction with moisture coming up from Florida to see if it would generate a coastal low or intensify a low forming on the front further. The frontal passage could usher in some fairly good wind gusts.

00z GFS: Shows the best chance for of 1-3 inches of snow in Northern New Jersey.

00z NAM: Shows the best chance for 1-3 inches of snow in Southern New Jersey.

I think it will a compromise between the two possible solutions. One thing is for sure, this storm will be very critical in setting the stage for a potential late week storm.

Still Some Power Outages

Winds are still fairly gusty late this evening, but not nearly as strong as just a few hours ago. Jersey Central Power & Light is still reporting up to 5,000 customers without power in Ocean County and up to 2,000 customers in Ocean County. A few hundred also remain without power in Cape May County.

Warm Front Winds Cause Power Outages

Strong wind gusts within the past few hours due to a warm front has caused some scattered power outages. Jersey Central Power & Light and Atlantic City Electric are reporting some power outages of significane.

Woodland: 43 MPH @ 8:55 p.m.
Belmar: 40 MPH @ 8:54 p.m.
Atlantic City: 41 MPH @ 8:54 p.m.
Southampton: 39 MPH @ 8:06 p.m.

Dense Fog Blown Out By Wind

Very strong winds across parts of New Jersey within the past hour....unexpected...have downed trees and wires and have ended our dense fog.

Compare the wind gusts with the temperatures....clearly you can see a relationship between the gusts and the temperatures.

2/5/2011 Extended Forecast: Active Week Ahead

National Weather Person’s Day is designated as February 5, 2011. This includes weather anchors and those who are meteorologists both in the private and public sector. This is a big holiday for forecasters and a time of celebration. We have come a very long way with forecasting technology over the past few decades. From a television standpoint, stations have gone from the magnets and dry erase boards to green screens and touchscreens. The internet is now making guidance, mapping, and forecasts available to anyone, including amateur forecasters. Accuracy is improving with the ability now to provide a five to seven day outlook. Before 1980, forecasts usually did not exceed 3 days and the accuracy was quite low for day five.

Temperatures this evening are holding in the upper twenties in the highest elevations of Northern New Jersey. In the lower elevations of Northern New Jersey and down into Central New Jersey, mid-thirties are common. In Southern New Jersey, temperatures are in the upper thirties and lower forties. We have a perfect recipe for dense fog as warmer air is moving over the snow-covered ground as the column is full of moisture. Expect ¼ to 1.00 mile visibilities tonight, until the winds begin to pick up.

The initial shot of precipitation is departing, but an upper-level low pressure area will be swinging through. It is catching up with the main energy too late to give us a significant winter storm. However, it will pull the infamous “540 Line” down through the Atlantic Ocean tonight and any precipitation it produces in our area will switch from rain to snow and sleet. The most precipitation is projected by the model guidance to be in the northern tier of New Jersey, but the models have backed off on the intensity quite a bit over the past forty-eight hours. Some snow showers could put down a coating in the far north, near High Point into Bergen County. Elsewhere, some flakes may fall and dissipate into the puddles. As some colder temperatures arrive overnight, there could be some black ice formation.

Sunday will be one of the warmer days of the past two months. Highs will be in the upper thirties with some areas possibly reaching 40+ degrees. It will be mostly sunny. Monday will be sunny in the morning with clouds increasing in the afternoon. Some areas in Southern New Jersey could make a run for 50 degrees. Most of the region could see temperatures as highs as 45 or 46 degrees.

A strong cold front will cross the area on Monday Night into Tuesday. The latest computer modeling guidance shows the column initially warm enough for a mixture of rain and snow or rain. But the cold air advection may catch up with the frontal moisture and quickly change any liquid over to frozen precipitation, in the form of wet snow with perhaps some sleet. The models seem to hint at low pressure developing along this front as it crosses our region which would intensify the precipitation along the boundary. This could cause a six hour period of steady, accumulating snow. The timing of the frontal energy would be critical as if the colder air lags behind, we initially would have more rain than snow. Should the guidance be correct, the cold air would be catching up to us before the balk of the precipitation. This frontal passage will have to be monitored for interaction with moisture coming up from Florida to see if it would generate a coastal low or intensify a low forming on the front further. The frontal passage could usher in some fairly good wind gusts.

Much has been made about a potential winter storm on Thursday. Some of the computer models that were indicating a massive storm with large implications began to back off yesterday. When I see such storms seven to eight days out, I proceed with caution. The models will sometimes dream up these storms; giving snow-lovers the thrill up their leg and then back off. It is very well possible that the models have only temporarily lost this storm, only to bring it back days before impact. The European Model from 12z does show the storm giving the region some snow. The overall climatology favors a large storm on Thursday or Friday. As a normal rule of thumb, I usually do not forecast precipitation for when one of our reliable American models does not show anything more than clouds with a miss of more than five-hundred miles. This is simply a wait and see situation. It does appear a major pattern change is in the works after next week and huge storms thrive off such a change. In March 2010, after weeks of unusually large snowfalls and below normal temperatures, there was a powerful storm that swept through the region. Practically every single day after that storm we observed above average temperatures. The storm brought strong winds to the region and flooding, which combined with a snow-saturated ground to produce widespread tree damage. So the idea of a major storm, not necessarily the one like March that contained rain, is plausible. I also must note that overtime the models this season have shifted the storms to the west as we got closer and this is another reason why the idea of a major storm is NOT off the table. I always like to forecast for the next storm ONLY when the storm before it has swung through and has set the stage for the next one, pattern wise. This means that only by Tuesday Night we should see a clearer picture get revealed. If some of our long range modeling is correct, prior to the pattern change, there could be a very cold outbreak of arctic air by the end of the week.

Temperatures Rising After Light Icing

The new temperatures in at 11:00 a.m. show that many areas in Central and Southern New Jersey are now at 33 degrees, barely above freezing. I see these temperatures rising very minimally throughout the afternoon in these locations. There are still a few pockets where temperatures are at 32 degrees and hence the winter weather advisory has been continued for this region. Sussex, Warren, and Morris Counties are still in the upper twenties at this hour. These three counties will experience a prolonged period of freezing rain and freezing drizzle into the afternoon. As I had mentioned last night, the light icing would likely lead to numerous accidents because many would believe it is a minor event and not take precautions. There were numerous vehicle accidents early this morning.

Jersey Central Power and Light's outage map did show a few counties with 501-2000 customers without power. I am not sure if this is the result of vehciles hitting poles or if there is just enough icing to bring down some branches.