Tonight, it will be a perfect night if you are traveling to watch the Super Bowl with friends. There will only be some high clouds increasing across the region. Temperatures should drop into the teens in Northwestern New Jersey and lower twenties elsewhere. On Monday, we will see increasing cloudiness in our region ahead of the next storm system.
A strong cold front will be crossing the area into Tuesday Morning. The latest NAM Model from 18z does not show a very aggressive development of a wave of low pressure along the boundary. The result is very little liquid to work with. In addition, it does not show the energy from Florida phasing together to ring out some moisture along the Middle Atlantic Coast. The best chance of precipitation and coldest temperatures are clearly in Northwest New Jersey on this model run. However, the 12z GFS Model showed a stronger wave along the front and interaction with energy coming up from the Southeastern United States which would result in a light accumulation of snow for just about everyone. On this GFS run from 12z, the colder air does arrive before the bulk of the precipitation with the “540 Line” well offshore. At this very moment, I will continue to forecast precipitation for very late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. At this point, a rain and snow mix may transition to wet snow and sleet before ending. The question will be how intense and widespread is the thumping of snow as the system pulls away. Since there is quite a bit of uncertainty, I will not be developing a snow map tonight. However, the 12z GFS run does grab my attention that a few inches of snow is possible across parts of New Jersey if everything fell into line just perfectly.
The winds will be quite strong behind the front and temperatures will drop from early morning highs. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are likely in the system’s wake as colder air advection continues to rush into the Garden State. This may take down some weaker trees and weaker tree limbs, especially with the recent wet snow and icing.
Many have been going absolutely bonkers over two pieces of energy that will begin to approach the Eastern United States on Thursday, but at the present time I have nothing to be too excited about. I have not been too excited about this storm since it appeared on the models. Even if we get a storm, I don’t think it will be the biggest one of the season. Time to face reality perhaps…we have seen more snow this season than we typically get and the amounts have pushed our climate sites to above average for the season. The latest ECMWF and GFS guidance shows the system continuing to pass to our south and east. This season we have seen many storms disappear only to come back to haunt us. The Boxing Day Snowstorm which shutdown New Jersey gave us forty-eight hour notice. We have seen the storms tracks shift further to the north and west with time as well this season. However, as I look at the situation, I see perhaps the North Atlantic Oscillation trending more positive which precludes storminess. The reliable models also don’t suggest sharpness to the flow which is critical to have for a turn up the coast and decent phasing. It remains a rule of thumb that I typically do not forecast any precipitation when the American models just do not see it happening at any degree. Even with the Boxing Day Snowstorm, the models had at least some liquid to work with. Given that a potent storm usually arrives prior to a pattern change, as I spoke about in yesterday’s extended forecast, I think it is still wise to forecast a low chance for snow. This decision also weighs the fact that we see north and west shifts overtime this season. The low chance is figured into the choice of the icon arrangement centered on Thursday with a call for an overcast sky and a smaller snow icon. If the 12z GFS is dead on, we would be dealing with a lot of sunshine. We need to wait until Tuesday Night before this can be totally written off.
If you are putting money on it, I think Tuesday has far more potential to bring accumulating snowfall than Thursday.
A bigger storm would mean a fairly good encounter with Arctic Air Thursday into Saturday as it would leave snow cover behind and establish a strong northwest flow as the system would intensify to our north and east. If this does not happen, we will see an outbreak of cold air, but not as harsh. Right now the ends of the week temperatures reflect the not as harsh solution.
60 or better mid to later portions of next week?
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