Chance of T-Storms Every Single Day of the Next Seven!!

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. These storms may be widely scattered. They will be associated with a weak backdoor cold front moving in from the northeast. Our northeastern counties have the best chance for thunderstorms…along with the coastline. With sunshine expected on Saturday and temperatures expected to rise into the seventies, some instability will be present and a few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The latest high resolution modeling is not showing the most impressive organization and more showers than thunderstorms. Hail would be the main severe threat tomorrow, along with gusty winds if a thunderstorm intensifies to that level. Still, some locally heavy rainfall can be expected.

A warm front arriving later on Sunday will cause some showers and maybe a thunderstorm to develop in the afternoon and night into Monday Morning. Some cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall is possible where the thunderstorms develop.

We are going to be put right into the center of an active storm track ahead of a sluggish cold front Tuesday through Friday. Waves of low pressure/spokes of energy will impact our region and combine with the daytime heating of each afternoon to produce thunderstorms and showers. With temperatures expected to rise into the eighties and sunshine prior to cumulous and cumulonimbus cloud development, instability will allow surface based CAPE to increase and lapse rates to increase at both low and mid-levels. This suggests at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. More focused and widespread activity will center around forcing mechanisms that are able to provide decent lift and determining these will be the day before or day of the event.

With good moisture content in the air and perhaps some slow movement of the thunderstorms, some flash flooding will remain a strong possibility. Now with the previous rains, the ground is much more susceptible to flooding and flash flooding. Again, the Passaic and Raritan Basins are the most vulnerable to flooding. But even our other basins could flood if there are new jackpot zones and storms yield three to four inches over a localized area.