A slight risk designation for severe thunderstorms has been issued for our entire area on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will bring an end to our excessive heat. Several parts of New Jersey by late afternoon on Wednesday will reach 90 degrees or higher for the third day in a row, making this the first official heat wave of 2011.
The Storm Prediction Center has given us a high-end slight risk designation in the day two outlook. A 15% and 30% probability of severe weather warrants a slight risk of severe weather in the day two outlook. Much of New Jersey is under a 30% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point. Most of the time when we are under a slight risk, we are placed within a 15% probability, so the threat is higher than normal at this time. Further evaluation will be done by the Storm Prediction Center on Wednesday Morning when we will be under the day one outlook which breaks the severe weather down by phenomena and gives a specific probability to each phenomenon.
While some large hail is possible, the main threat on Wednesday will be damaging wind gusts. The non-severe thunderstorm threats of dangerous cloud to ground lightning and brief torrential rains are likely with any thunderstorms.
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