The latest thunderstorm to develop, after the northern round, has been in the Burlington County area. This thunderstorm cluster just keeps redeveloping over the same areas. A very small pocket has picked up one to one and one half inches of rain in less than two hours according to the radar. Similar cells may develop into this evening where small pockets just keep getting hammered. Otherwise, some may see the sun set before cloudiness becomes more pronounced.
An aerial flood watch has been issued for Camden, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Somerset, Sussex, Warren, and Western Monmouth Counties. Two to four inches of rain with locally higher amounts are quite possible from Tuesday Morning through late Wednesday Night. It wouldn’t be surprising to see some amounts as high six to eight inches over very small areas, but areas that receive several thunderstorms or training of thunderstorms.
There is about a 100 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Moisture will stream in off the ocean. The modeling shows a clear connection occurring. The initial low affecting us right now will weaken and another low will develop around the Carolina coastline. This low will take quite a long time to drift into the Ohio valley.
On Thursday through Saturday, an area of high pressure is going to try to grip the area. However, it appears so weak that it will still permit thunderstorm and shower development. What it will most likely do is limit enough moisture to make the activity more isolated to scattered in nature. With more sunshine expected, we could have an increased chance for some severe weather.
Based on the temperature profiles in the thunderstorm areas today, I did nudge down temperatures a bit in the forecast on the rainiest days.
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