Round 2 of High Winds To Arrive Soon

3:10 p.m. Update: Sustained Winds as of 2:55 P.M. :

Washington-Dulles: 43 MPH
Fredrick, Maryland: 36 MPH
Baltimore-Washington: 37 MPH
Harrisburg: 33 MPH
Lancaster: 33 MPH
Northeast Philadelphia: 33 MPH
Wilmington: 32 MPH
Philadelphia International 30 MPH
Numerous gusts in the 45 to 60 MPH range.


The thunderstorms are about to exit the New Jersey coastline. We did have reports of wind damage with these thunderstorms, especially in Gloucester County according to law enforcement. Temperatures will drop rapidly and the second round of highs winds will begin to ramp up within the next two hours. To give you an idea of how bad round two will be, let us take a look at what is happening across Maryland, Central Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia.

Lancaster Airport and Hagerstown Regional Airport (both to our west) have reported sustained winds of 41 MPH. Washington D.C. also reported a sustained wind of 39 MPH. To put this in perspective, sustained tropical storm force winds are 39 to 73 MPH. It is very rare to see the sustained high wind warning criteria (40 MPH or greater) being met in the Middle Atlantic and it is possible we could see this happen even in New Jersey.

Certainly, gusts of 40 to 60 MPH will down many trees and cause widespread outages. But in the areas that see 35 to 45 MPH sustained winds, there could be some structural damage.

Damaging Winds and Power Outages Likely By Evening

The Storm Prediction Center this morning placed most of Central and Southern New Jersey under a slight risk for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting hail, but they are forecasting a probability of damaging wind gusts even an isolated tornado. The environment does have increasing shear, so a tornado concern would not be completely unwarranted by any means. But very severe winds aloft can easily be transported to the surface with any thunderstorm and therefore the risk of damaging winds is the primary concern.

The limiting factors for thunderstorms could be the real lack of sunshine. However, there still is some very modest instability with the warm sector now arriving in place. Temperatures will continue to increase, reaching the lower sixties to mid-sixties in most of Southern New Jersey. Dew points will also continue to increase and there will be rich moisture to work with.

Meanwhile, it will not take thunderstorms to produce very high winds this afternoon and this evening. A high wind warning is in effect for the potential of widespread damaging wind gusts as the front approaches and passes. Strong northwesterly winds are associated with an area of low pressure passing through Pennsylvania, which will eventually pass through New Jersey. It will be behind this low that we see the strongest gusts for a few hours. We received the heavy rain and some more heavy showers and thunderstorms could be on the way. Therefore, the ground will be saturated just in time for these strong winds increasing the chance of whole trees coming down, something the expected wind gusts in excess of 58 MPH will already be capable of doing with even a dry ground.

Widespread power outages are possible as a result of the high winds. This could be a situation that leads to outages that may be of long duration. Temperatures could fall more than 30 degrees across areas that get into the sixties in just three to four hours and with a driving wind, homes will cool down rapidly as the temperatures drop. This could cause some communities to enact shelter plans. More than 50,000 people could lose power in New Jersey if the worst case scenario is realized.

High Wind Warning, Flood Watch, and Severe T-Storm Threat Friday

The National Weather Service has placed the region under a high wind warning for Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening. A high wind warning is not issued to often, as severe wind events are fairly unusual for the Garden State. However, this is the second high wind warning product issuance in less than one week. A high wind warning is issued when sustained winds of 40 MPH or greater and/or wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater are imminent or occurring. A warning implies dangerous conditions are imminent or occurring. For Northeastern New Jersey, a high wind watch is in effect.

The high winds will obviously once again lead to a situation where many trees and tree branches could come down. This may close several roadways and lead to widespread power outages. One difference with this high wind event will notably be the ground saturation. The ground will be absolutely saturated after receiving two to three inches of rain, possibly more. The saturated ground will increase the chances for whole trees, even healthy ones, to come down.

A high wind warning does not include the wind gusts that could come with any potential thunderstorms. The other wind threat will come thunderstorms that could develop ahead of the warm sector in the mid to late afternoon hours, as the cold front sweeps through. There appears to be favorable conditions for the development of thunderstorms that can transport strong winds aloft down to the surface in the warm sector. The areas in the warm sector have the possibility of tapping into rich moisture, shear, and instability…especially if some clearing takes place for a few hours prior to the frontal passage. I have more confidence of this occurring south of Interstate 195, but even north of this line we will have to watch for thunderstorms to develop. One higher resolution model shows a severe cell even making it into Mercer County.

Meanwhile, a flood watch is in effect for Northern and Central New Jersey. Our higher resolution models are indicating the bulls-eye of heavy precipitation in the watch counties. I would not be shocked if flood watches or warnings include areas not under the current flood watch as I think everyone will see heavy rain and while it may not be the heaviest axis, it will be drenching.

Temperatures could fall more than thirty-degrees in just three hours from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. for areas that get into the warm sector and rise to near 65-70 degrees. Quite a contrast once again from North to South.

2/19/2011 Extended Forecast

745 UPDATE: Wind Advisory until Midnight for 40-50 MPH gusts.

New Jersey continues to deal with the impact of this nasty wind storm that moved through today. Thousands remain without power, especially across Southern New Jersey. The high wind warning (wind advisory in NE NJ) remains in effect until late tonight. 25 to 35 MPH sustained winds with gusts of 40 to 55 MPH will eventually diminish this evening...the 55+ gusts appear to be finally over with. There appears to be one more wave of high winds passing through for the next few hours. As long as the winds gust over 40 MPH, outages will continue to be an issue and I would not be surprised if the warning is downgraded to an advisory, but kept up for a longer period of time into Sunday Morning. Enhanced fire danger prompting the red flag warning in portions of the area should diminish with the wind decrease expected.

I do see the snow showers and snow flurries on the radar with the NE Flow impacting Northwestern and North-Central New Jersey. Above freezing temperatures and overall light echoes means nothing more than a pretty scene with the wind blown flakes.

A warm front is projected to cross our region Sunday Evening into Monday Morning. The sun will be out early on Sunday with high clouds filtering in by late morning. Clouds will thicken throughout Sunday Afternoon. Temperatures may fall back a few degrees in the evening hours, coming off of our high temperatures of around 40 degrees. The clouds can play two roles here. One, they can keep the temperatures from rising to 40 degrees. Two, they can prevent temperatures from falling back to around freezing in the evening. It will be tricky in trying to determine what role the clouds will play exactly.

The 18z NAM seems to be in line with my current thinking on the precipitation with the warm front and this model does not show much measurable precipitation. Most of it is kept North and West of the Garden State. If this is correct, with light precipitation and borderline temperatures, it would lead me to believe it would be more of a drizzle with any embedded heavier echoes producing some sleet. Overall, I doubt the mixing with the warm front will be a big deal. Around Sussex County, some freezing drizzle or freezing rain is possible whereas this is the best area for temperatures to fall back to around freezing prior to the precipitation arrival. However, I did look at the 18z GFS which does show a good slug of precipitation across Central and Northern New Jersey as it is cold enough for some sleet and wet snow to mix with rain, with snow and sleet in Sussex County. This is going to come down to what forecasters call a nowcast, based on trends and Doppler radar. Tomorrow afternoon is when you want to look for some updates.

The increasing low-level moisture will allow for some low cloud development, especially if the precipitation is lighter and the wind is calm for a time, which doesn’t allow for the air to be mixed. Another thing I will be watching with the warm frontal passage is a period of very gusty winds in Southern New Jersey and Delaware at some point. It was just a few weeks ago that a round of strong winds knocked out some power to a few thousand. We could have quite a temperature contrast from Northwest to Southeast on Monday. Of course the gusty wind would end any foggy conditions.

Temperatures will begin to fall off on Monday as the first system pushes away and drags a cold front through our region. There could be a gusty line of showers with the cold front, although the edge of the colder air could be arguably not defined as a front. An area of low pressure will arrive for Monday Night into Tuesday, but pass to our south. Initially, the precipitation will likely start as some rain and as colder air in, expect a transition to wet snow and sleet. It continues to appear as though the heaviest axis of moisture will slide across Southern New Jersey. However, the models have been shifting this axis with each run and it bears watching. Warmer ground temperatures and surface air temperatures above freezing support a wet snow and may hinder the accumulation, especially if there is light intensity. I think your best chances for accumulations, if at all, is between Mount Holly and Toms River down through Cape May.

Another quick rebound is likely by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures once again could rise into the sixties. We could have another warm front bring a chance of rain showers on Friday.

Damaging Winds Expected This Afternoon-Evening

By mid-afternoon, I expect more than ten-thousand customers without electric service throughout New Jersey. We already have thousands without electric service currently. I could even see 20,000 to 40,000 customers losing electric by early this evening. The latest guidance is showing wind gusts of around 60 knots which is the equivalent of 70 MPH. A high wind warning remains in effect through 9:00 p.m. with a wind advisory for northeastern portions of New Jersey.

Wind gusts of 60-70 MPH could certainly do structural damage to roofs and knock down weak structures such as inflatable buildings. Debris will fly in the roadway if left outside. Whole trees, large branches, and utility lines could also be lying in the road so drive carefully if you intend to travel today. Driving with any vehicle could be difficult and the higher gusts could overturn any high profile vehicle.
A high wind warning implies dangerous windy conditions are likely.

A red flag warning remains in effect for Central and Southern New Jersey. Low humidity and damaging winds will fan any flames and cause any flames to spiral quickly out of control posing a life-threatning situation should a fire start and spread to adjacent structures/people.

Links to monitor power outages:

Jersey Central Power and Light [New Jersey]

Public Service Electric and Gas [Western, Central, and Northern New Jersey]

Atlantic City Electric [South Jersey]

Orange and Rockland [Extreme North Jersey]

High Wind Warning

The high wind watch has been upgraded to a high wind warning. This is the most serious wind product you can have for your area...outside a tropical weather wind product or a severe thunderstorm product.

Sustained winds of 40 MPH or greater

and/or

Wind Gusts of 58 MPH or greater

That is the criteria for a high wind warning.

NE New Jersey remains under a wind advisory for now.