745 UPDATE: Wind Advisory until Midnight for 40-50 MPH gusts.
New Jersey continues to deal with the impact of this nasty wind storm that moved through today. Thousands remain without power, especially across Southern New Jersey. The high wind warning (wind advisory in NE NJ) remains in effect until late tonight. 25 to 35 MPH sustained winds with gusts of 40 to 55 MPH will eventually diminish this evening...the 55+ gusts appear to be finally over with. There appears to be one more wave of high winds passing through for the next few hours. As long as the winds gust over 40 MPH, outages will continue to be an issue and I would not be surprised if the warning is downgraded to an advisory, but kept up for a longer period of time into Sunday Morning. Enhanced fire danger prompting the red flag warning in portions of the area should diminish with the wind decrease expected.
I do see the snow showers and snow flurries on the radar with the NE Flow impacting Northwestern and North-Central New Jersey. Above freezing temperatures and overall light echoes means nothing more than a pretty scene with the wind blown flakes.
A warm front is projected to cross our region Sunday Evening into Monday Morning. The sun will be out early on Sunday with high clouds filtering in by late morning. Clouds will thicken throughout Sunday Afternoon. Temperatures may fall back a few degrees in the evening hours, coming off of our high temperatures of around 40 degrees. The clouds can play two roles here. One, they can keep the temperatures from rising to 40 degrees. Two, they can prevent temperatures from falling back to around freezing in the evening. It will be tricky in trying to determine what role the clouds will play exactly.
The 18z NAM seems to be in line with my current thinking on the precipitation with the warm front and this model does not show much measurable precipitation. Most of it is kept North and West of the Garden State. If this is correct, with light precipitation and borderline temperatures, it would lead me to believe it would be more of a drizzle with any embedded heavier echoes producing some sleet. Overall, I doubt the mixing with the warm front will be a big deal. Around Sussex County, some freezing drizzle or freezing rain is possible whereas this is the best area for temperatures to fall back to around freezing prior to the precipitation arrival. However, I did look at the 18z GFS which does show a good slug of precipitation across Central and Northern New Jersey as it is cold enough for some sleet and wet snow to mix with rain, with snow and sleet in Sussex County. This is going to come down to what forecasters call a nowcast, based on trends and Doppler radar. Tomorrow afternoon is when you want to look for some updates.
The increasing low-level moisture will allow for some low cloud development, especially if the precipitation is lighter and the wind is calm for a time, which doesn’t allow for the air to be mixed. Another thing I will be watching with the warm frontal passage is a period of very gusty winds in Southern New Jersey and Delaware at some point. It was just a few weeks ago that a round of strong winds knocked out some power to a few thousand. We could have quite a temperature contrast from Northwest to Southeast on Monday. Of course the gusty wind would end any foggy conditions.
Temperatures will begin to fall off on Monday as the first system pushes away and drags a cold front through our region. There could be a gusty line of showers with the cold front, although the edge of the colder air could be arguably not defined as a front. An area of low pressure will arrive for Monday Night into Tuesday, but pass to our south. Initially, the precipitation will likely start as some rain and as colder air in, expect a transition to wet snow and sleet. It continues to appear as though the heaviest axis of moisture will slide across Southern New Jersey. However, the models have been shifting this axis with each run and it bears watching. Warmer ground temperatures and surface air temperatures above freezing support a wet snow and may hinder the accumulation, especially if there is light intensity. I think your best chances for accumulations, if at all, is between Mount Holly and Toms River down through Cape May.
Another quick rebound is likely by the end of the forecast period. Temperatures once again could rise into the sixties. We could have another warm front bring a chance of rain showers on Friday.
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