High Wind Warning, Flood Watch, and Severe T-Storm Threat Friday

The National Weather Service has placed the region under a high wind warning for Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening. A high wind warning is not issued to often, as severe wind events are fairly unusual for the Garden State. However, this is the second high wind warning product issuance in less than one week. A high wind warning is issued when sustained winds of 40 MPH or greater and/or wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater are imminent or occurring. A warning implies dangerous conditions are imminent or occurring. For Northeastern New Jersey, a high wind watch is in effect.

The high winds will obviously once again lead to a situation where many trees and tree branches could come down. This may close several roadways and lead to widespread power outages. One difference with this high wind event will notably be the ground saturation. The ground will be absolutely saturated after receiving two to three inches of rain, possibly more. The saturated ground will increase the chances for whole trees, even healthy ones, to come down.

A high wind warning does not include the wind gusts that could come with any potential thunderstorms. The other wind threat will come thunderstorms that could develop ahead of the warm sector in the mid to late afternoon hours, as the cold front sweeps through. There appears to be favorable conditions for the development of thunderstorms that can transport strong winds aloft down to the surface in the warm sector. The areas in the warm sector have the possibility of tapping into rich moisture, shear, and instability…especially if some clearing takes place for a few hours prior to the frontal passage. I have more confidence of this occurring south of Interstate 195, but even north of this line we will have to watch for thunderstorms to develop. One higher resolution model shows a severe cell even making it into Mercer County.

Meanwhile, a flood watch is in effect for Northern and Central New Jersey. Our higher resolution models are indicating the bulls-eye of heavy precipitation in the watch counties. I would not be shocked if flood watches or warnings include areas not under the current flood watch as I think everyone will see heavy rain and while it may not be the heaviest axis, it will be drenching.

Temperatures could fall more than thirty-degrees in just three hours from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. for areas that get into the warm sector and rise to near 65-70 degrees. Quite a contrast once again from North to South.