Mid-Week Storm Late Night Model Analysis

The "540 Line" is the blue line on the images. For simple purposes just know that snow likes to occur when you are north of the line.

Late Tonight, the 00z NAM model suggests only Southeastern New Jersey getting some precipitation. The model has the “540 line” right around Cape May and Atlantic City which tends to indicate some sort of wintry mix or rain/snow mix would be possible. This model shows the coldest air and best chance of frozen precipitation as the precipitation ends.

Late Tonight, the 00z GFS model suggests a coastal storm. Despite the area being on the “colder side”, the air on the colder side is not cold enough for snowfall initially. The “540 line” lifts into Northwest New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania. However, as the storm intensifies and begins to move away, the model drags the “540 line” well into the ocean with heavy precipitation indicated over New Jersey. If one looks at this model closely, it would be interpreted as rain with some sleet and snow at the onset, followed by heavy rain with ice in Northwest New Jersey, ending as heavy snow and sleet.

Once again, we have two very different solutions with the same time stamp and also solutions totally different from the previous runs of the same models. It is not common to see accumulating snow in our region after warm air and heavy rain with the same storm. But it has happened before and in fact happened the other day in parts of South Jersey. If the GFS were to be believed, two to six inches of snow and sleet would occur on the backend of the storm in Central and Southern New Jersey along with the potential for a flash freeze.