Since the middle part of the week, the computer models have been hinting at a potential significant storm for Tuesday into Wednesday. The various models and their four runs that occur each day have printed out various solutions from a very snowy situation to a very wet situation. Last Night the Global Forecast System model showed about three to six inches of rain. With the recent rain and snow, this would certainly lead to significant flooding if this is what will transpire. Today, the model has come in from 12Z and is hinting at a significant snowfall with numbers easily over a foot in a large part of New Jersey.
I suspect this flip-flopping on the models will continue throughout the weekend. I think there can be no certainty in the track of this system until a clipper passes by to our north on Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. This storm will set the stage for an area of high pressure to settle to our north. This high pressure area will be a key factor in placing the extent of the cold air and the blocking. At this point, if you take the difference of the guidance, you have the potential for a wintry mix or an ice storm as a middle ground.
The certainties are far from being known. However, it appears confidence is increasing that this will be a situation in which there is significant precipitation and potential wind. It also appears to be an event that will last longer than 24 hours. Some of the guidance suggests this storm stalling for a time which could prolong the precipitation.
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