A wave of low pressure continues to ride along a stalled frontal boundary. This system is bringing rain to our entire area. South of Interstate 195, the rain may be heavy at times. The NAM is indicating some colder air developing aloft this evening and the heavier bursts of rain may contain some sleet pellets or wet snowflakes. The rain will taper off to drizzle early on Saturday Morning before gradual clearing takes place.
There is a change in the forecast for Sunday. The modeling has delayed the warm front arrival until Sunday Night. This means Sunday will be cooler than previously forecast. It also means that Sunday Morning will be dry and now we are looking for some isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday Evening into early on Monday Morning.
At this point, the warm front should clear Monday Morning and I am still expecting a very warm day with highs in the middle eighties in much of Central and Southern New Jersey. Should the warm front fail to clear the region, a few degrees could be shaved off the temperatures predicted.
Showers and thunderstorms will arrive Monday Evening and Monday Night, perhaps lingering into early Tuesday Morning. The exact timing will make a difference with the potential for severe thunderstorms. At this point, if they occur during nightfall, the likelihood of severe weather will decrease some. However, instability will not totally wane this quickly and some scattered severe thunderstorms are probable. The timing of the thunderstorms could move up and this may have an adverse effect on the high temperatures and severity of the storms.
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