2 Storms, Numerous Uncertainties

The first system will be affecting the region Wednesday Afternoon into early Thursday Morning. The latest computer modeling has shifted this storm northward. Still, the majority of measurable precipitation will fall south of Interstate 195. In the regions that will have the coldest temperatures in the upper atmosphere the precipitation intensity will be very light. The light intensity will make it hard for colder air aloft to drag to the lower levels of the atmosphere and this means there could be patchy drizzle instead of light snow or flurries. In areas that may see steadier precipitation, the temperatures will be warmer and despite the intensity, it may not snow but rather rain. The area to watch will be between Route 1 and the Atlantic City Expressway. Should there be heavier precipitation in this area for a few hours, after the sun settles for the night, some snow is possible and it could accumulate on grassy surfaces. Meanwhile, it will also have to be determined whether the immediate surface temperature eventually drops in Central New Jersey to the freezing mark which would allow the potential for some freezing drizzle. In Northwestern New Jersey, whatever makes it into these areas would probably be in the form of snow as here the temperatures would be cold enough in all levels regardless of the intensity.

The true forecasting nightmare arrives Thursday Night and lingers into Friday. A Nor’easter is possible. The models have been flopping on the storm track and intensity. This is critical to know for me to determine the precipitation type and air temperatures at various levels. The late afternoon GFS guidance was a bit warmer than the early morning guidance. At this point, the onset may be start as snow in the Northwest New Jersey regions with rain, possibly mixed with sleet and wet snow elsewhere. Then, it may rain for the remainder of the event in most spots before potentially ending as wet snow. There was one ominous model run of the GFS this morning which indicated the potential for a mix changing to a wet snowstorm for much of the region and for now that will be considered an outlier. Whatever precipitation falls, there appears to be a 6 to 12 hour period for it to be heavy at times and combined with strong winds. Of course you have the late afternoon NAM model which doesn’t show much of a storm at all. This portion of the forecast remains challenging and once again huge and drastic changes may be in store in future forecasts in both measurable amounts and temperature.