The National Weather Service earlier this morning already placed a good portion of New Jersey under a flood watch from Thursday Morning into Friday Morning. Usually a watch would be issued slightly closer to the event. However, the model guidance continues to yield high confidence that another significant…if not excessive…rainfall event will impact the region on Thursday. The heaviest rain may wait until later on Thursday with cresting of waterways occurring approximately twelve to twenty-four hours later.
I am still confident in a widespread two to three inch rainfall, with locally higher amounts between four and six inches. I wouldn’t be surprised that some of sandier soil counties are added to the watch as the event gets closer. These rainfall amounts will result in moderate to major severity flooding. Some of the waterways in Northern New Jersey are still under a flood warning and some are awaiting a crest that will not occur until late tonight or Wednesday Morning at major flood stage. Since I do not believe these rivers will recover in time, historic flooding is a possibility for the Passaic River areas under the current warnings.
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