Friday, March 11, 2011

3/11/2011 Extended Forecast: Lingering Flooding



Heavy rainfall on Sunday and additional heavy rainfall on Thursday into early this morning has caused widespread flooding related problems across New Jersey, continuing the State of Emergency. Previous snow melt from a very well above average winter snowfall has also combined with the recent rains to allow waterways to be above the average heights. In addition, significant melting snowpack and rain across Northeastern Pennsylvania and New York is also draining downstream. Finally, tidal affects yesterday and this morning has also contributed to higher water levels. With this said, based on the flooding around the Passaic River, Northern New Jersey certainly didn’t escape the worst of this storm. Unfortunately, some of these areas have been under water now for nearly six days since the Sunday heavy rains.

The Passaic River near Millington affecting Morris and Sussex Counties is under a flood warning. The Passaic River near Chatham affecting Morris and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. The Passaic River near Pine Brook affecting Essex, Morris, and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Passaic River near Little Falls affecting Essex and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Ramapo River near Pompton Lakes affecting Bergen, Morris, and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Rockaway River near Boonton affecting Morris County is under a flood warning. The Pequannock River near the Macopin Dam affecting Morris and Passaic Counties is under a flood warning. The Wanaque River affecting Passaic County is under a flood warning. Major flooding to historical flooding is forecast for this location and is already occurring in many areas. The crest or highest water levels are expected Saturday Morning before very slowly falling.

The Delaware River near Tocks Island affecting Sussex, Warren, and Morris Counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River near Phillipsburg affecting Hunterdon and Warren Counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Riegelsville affecting Hunterdon and Mercer counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Frenchtown affecting Hunterdon County is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Stockton affecting Hunterdon County is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Lambertville affecting Mercer and Hunterdon Counties is under a flood warning. The Delaware River at Trenton affecting Mercer County is under a flood warning. Minor flooding is forecast for these locations, with a continued slow rise expected into Saturday Morning.

The Millstone River near Blackwells Mills is under a flood warning. Minor flooding is forecast for this location, with a continued slow rise expected into Saturday Morning.
The South Branch of the Raritan near Stanton affecting Hunterdon and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. The Raritan River near Manville affecting Middlesex and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. The Raritan River near Bound Brook affecting Middlesex and Somerset Counties is under a flood warning. Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast.

Areal flood warnings remain in effect for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon Somerset, Mercer, and Middlesex Counties for urban and small streams in these counties that don’t have official flood gauges and specified stages.

Next up is the Tsunami in Japan that resulted from the 8.9 magnitude earthquake. The earthquake was the fifth largest in recorded history and the largest ever to affect Japan. The tsunami was so powerful that it caused a swirl to form offshore. Tsunami coastal flooding occurs with little warning near the quake epicenter and can be extremely powerful with currents and rise to great heights. It is worse than even a flash flood. While this doesn’t affect New Jersey directly, I myself have friends in Japan (serving our great country) that have New Jersey residency. Obviously, it is a catastrophic disaster. The scenes and footage of cars, homes, and excessive amounts of debris washing away is just impressive to look at.

Now for the New Jersey forecast. A weak cold front will move through Saturday Night, bringing a few sprinkles or an isolated shower. The next potential problem will be during the middle of the week. There is strong disagreement amongst the computer model guidance. Some models are showing a weak front moving through our region, while others show a front with an area of low pressure moving up into the Middle Atlantic area. Obviously, the second option would bring concerns of additional heavy rains and flooding. Currently, with very low confidence, a chance of rain will be in my extended forecast with a mostly cloudy icon. Overall, with the days becoming longer the chances for strong cold outbreaks or snowy weather is diminishing. In fact, the temperatures appear to be above average during much of the period with a more significant warm-up anticipated late in the week. Even behind yesterday’s cold front and low to our northeast, the westerly flow has been unable to cause our temperatures to drop into the forties for highs.

Change the clocks to be AHEAD ONE HOUR on Saturday Night before you go to sleep. Yes, we will be losing an hour of sleep. Between flooding and loss of sleep, the weekend promises to be a miserable weekend. However, just think of how we “SPRING AHEAD” and the word SPRING.
By the way, March 12, tomorrow, will be the anniversary of our major spring storm of 2010 that caused widespread flooding and severe wind damage. It brought the most utility outages caused by weather in utility company history.

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