It will be a wintry mix for Saturday, not all snow if the current computer model guidance remains consistent in later runs. We will be on the “colder side” of an area of low pressure passing to our east. However, it is not a terribly intense low pressure system and therefore it will have difficulty producing colder air. The air mass that will be in place will not consist of below freezing temperatures throughout the entire column except at the onset and at the very end of this coastal storm.
Expect precipitation to break out on Saturday Morning as a period of snow and sleet. The precipitation will transition to rain. Temperatures at the surface could be below freezing... and the earlier the start time, the better the potential for a brief period of freezing rain. The wintry mix will hold the longest in Northwestern New Jersey. Sussex County is under a winter storm watch as some more significant icing and several inches of snow may occur there. Everyone may see a period of snow or snow showers as the system moves to our north and east and pulls away which would drag in some colder air. An inch or two of snow may occur on the backside of this, especially in Northern and Central New Jersey. The only thing that I could see happen with this.... if there is a colder solution.... is that there could be more of a prolonged period of sleet or freezing rain than currently forecast. I think the models could be overdoing the warm air during the most intense part of the event as an eastern storm track normally wouldn’t draw up such a flow.
If there is rain, we could see up to an inch. Some more snow would melt, so some more big puddles are possible.
We may have some snow showers on Tuesday as a system passes by to our north. I think this system will bring a threat of strong winds behind it.
A more significant trouble maker is lurking for late next week. This storm has the potential to be loaded with moisture.
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