The big story tonight is the near term forecast. We will have a winter weather event beginning late tonight and extending through the morning commute. I would not be surprised if some sections of Northern or Central New Jersey reach the winter storm warning criteria for snowfall based on the latest guidance.
The 18z model guidance is now in. The NAM model continues to give much of our region 0.25” to 0.50” of liquid output. This would be the equivalent of three to six inches of snow. In Northwestern New Jersey, if you are traveling that way, there will be a higher snow ratio, so a few locations could exceed six inches of snow there. Meanwhile, the GFS model continues to show the 0.25” to 0.50” bull’s-eye affecting just Northeast New Jersey into New York City.
Basically, the snow map remains the same. I will not make changes at this time. The mixing will threaten areas in Southeastern New Jersey into Central Delaware. I think this could be primarily rain in these areas perhaps mixing with some wet snow or sleet. Further North, along the Atlantic City Expressway and Route 70 corridors, some warmer air could nudge in aloft changing the wet snow over to sleet and freezing rain. I expect the temperature by start time to be at freezing or below in this area, so if there is rain, it would freeze on contact. I already see some numbers in Burlington County indicating that temperatures have already dropped to 32 degrees. The higher resolution models continue to suggest this area being the battle ground between snow and rain. Therefore, this area in the dotted circle could only get one to three inches with some icing or sleet. Should this area not see mixed precipitation, two to four inches of snow would be possible here. Further to the north, in Central New Jersey, especially inland, three to six inches is likely. This will be all snow with no mix in these areas. As I mentioned in the previous paragraph, this is also where the models seem to agree on the higher amounts.
The timing is the one thing that remains consistent. It is expected to start around midnight. The snow will end before or during the morning rush hour. In between, expect some heavier snowfall rates. The Friday Morning rush hour will likely be hazardous with untreated surfaces being potentially snow-covered. Even in the sections that may not see much snow, colder temperatures may develop around daybreak allowing for some black ice.
The one thing I remain sort of puzzled by is the models underperforming out to our west with the trough. Certainly if the mixing is in fact pictured wrong or the coastal storm forms a bit quicker, we may see some higher snowfall amounts. However, it is going to be tough to get several inches more than predicted with a storm only up to eight hours in length.
Winter weather advisories are in effect for all of New Jersey with the exception of Coastal Atlantic and Cape May Counties. These areas have been dropped from the advisory due to the mixing potential.
Skies will begin to clear by mid-morning. Clear skies are expected Friday Night. Temperatures will drop as cold air advection will begin to move into our area. The wind will prevent a sharp drop in temperatures on Friday Night, but it still will be very cold.
Temperatures will be bitterly cold on Saturday. Highs will struggle to reach 20 degrees. Most of the day will be spent in the teens. The wind will be gusty on Saturday and with the combination of cold temperatures…producing low wind chill values.
A clipper system on Saturday Night now will not allow for temperatures to drop below zero degrees. It looks like it could turn out to be mostly cloudy. Lows will be in the single digits in some locations, with teens in the urbanized centers. The clouds will remain through Sunday Morning. Sunday Night into Monday Morning now looks to be the most ideal cooling night as this is the night that I now expect the best opportunity for the coldest suburbs to drop to around zero degrees.
Another winter storm is possible Monday Night into Wednesday. Various ideas have been indicated by the long term models. At this point it will be wet snow or a mixture of some sort.
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