It was the mildest day in more than two weeks across our area. But in this forecast, I have the coldest day of the season thus far.
Tonight: Temperatures will drop into the mid-twenties. There will be a few high clouds, so partly cloudy skies are anticipated.
Thursday and Friday: Increasing cloudiness throughout the afternoon. Snow will arrive late at night as a clipper system approaches our region. Then a low pressure area will begin to take shape offshore. The models still have a slight disagreement on how close the system will be to our coastline. However, a trend has evolved today that indicates there will be a light to moderate accumulation of snow. The threat for substantial snowfall seems to be decreasing. The latest guidance shows the low that will form offshore forming further away from us and intensifying at a slower pace. After 11:00 p.m. tonight I will post a snowfall map for the region. I will be waiting for the 00Z Guidance to make a decision on where to place the heaviest axis of snow. The weaker system I think will limit the mixing at the shore, except for the extreme southeastern counties. Actually, the 18Z models above do not make me eager to say there will be any rain even in Cape May, but some of the higher resolution models show it. I am confident the snow will begin an hour or two before Midnight. The heaviest snowfall is expected to fall in the early morning hours. The snow could taper off during or before the morning rush hour. This is a quick hitting storm, 6 to 8 hours.
We will see the snow taper off and the sun likely will return by Friday Afternoon, if not by mid-morning. The wind will gradually pick up on Friday Afternoon and remain quite blustery at night. Temperatures will plunge on Friday Night with lows in the upper single digits and lower teens. The wind will prevent a sharper drop. The wind could cause some blowing and drifting snow. Wind chill values could potentially fall below zero. A wind chill advisory has not been issued for Central and Southern New Jersey in quite a few years. However, there is a possibility we will get close to the criteria of -10 degrees below zero for a wind chill on Friday Night.
Saturday will clearly be the coldest day of the season. Temperatures may not even hit 20 degrees. Much of the day will be spent in the teens. It will be very breezy on Saturday, but by night the wind should become calm. With the snow on the ground, calm winds, and the core of a strong arctic air mass in place….I can see many areas outside the cities dropping at or below zero degrees. The urbanized areas will still be in the upper single digits.
On Sunday, I expect the temperature recovery to be slow. 23 to 25 degrees seems reasonable, but this could be optimistic. Sunday Night will be an ideal cooling night again, but the core of arctic air will not be over us. Single digits are forecast for the Pine Barrens and coldest rural areas with lower teens elsewhere.
Monday we will rise to the freezing mark or perhaps we could fall short. Late on Monday will likely begin our next storm system. Tuesday is not looking like an ideal day with the potential for some more snow and sleet, possibly followed by freezing rain or rain.
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