A winter weather advisory remains in effect for all of New Jersey with the exception of Coastal Atlantic and Cape May County.
The 00Z, January 21, 2011 data has just been printed. Based on the data, my forecast looks to be mainly on target from earlier today. If I were to make any change….it would be expand the two to four inches of snow on the map into Northeast New Jersey and focus the three to six inches of snow area more towards New York City. I think the one to three inches over an expansive area remains very appropriate.Based on the latest high resolution model update, I still see the rain and sleet mixture across Southeastern New Jersey with a battle zone in an area with temperatures around freezing along that Atlantic City Expressway and Route 70 corridor. If the NAM is correct with less precipitation overall in these areas and we have some mixing, we would see amounts on the lower end of the one to three inch range in these areas. I still would anticipate a zone of glazing due to some light icing.
The snow has yet to begin in New Jersey. So far the storm has been struggling to fight some drier air. I expect this to begin to change around Midnight and some precipitation should begin to break out with the radar filling in after 1:00 a.m. The heaviest snowfall will be between 3:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. The snow will end during the morning commute from west to northeast. Only so much snow can fall in the time frame given. Therefore, even if this coastal storm gets cranking rapidly, we have limited time to take advantage of it. Thus far, the coastal storm has yet to develop as there is no real area of precipitation offshore.
The areas that see snow will see a wet snow. The drier and powdery snow will be towards Northwest New Jersey and the Poconos. The area over the Chesapeake Bay is one of the areas I will be watching over the next two hours for blossoming.
When we awaken, we will know the outcome. :-) As I said earlier, this storm is a hard one to forecast and has a high bust potential.
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