Friday, January 21, 2011

1/21/2011 Extended Forecast



Overnight will just be downright bitterly cold! Lows will be in the lower teens. While the wind tonight will prevent a drop, the gusty nature will cause wind chill values to drop into the single digits. Some readings below zero for wind chills are not out of the question.

Frigid and windy is the call for Saturday. Temperatures will struggle to hit 20 degrees in many areas. Most of the day will be spent with high temperatures in the teens. The winds will relax on Saturday Evening, but there will be more clouds moving in. This should prevent a rock bottom drop in the temperatures. However, some of the suburbs could still approach the single digits for low temperatures with widespread lows in the lower teens. Wind chill values will remain in the single digits to lower teens during much of the day.

On Sunday, middle to upper twenties will be the best we can do. A few clouds still may be hanging tough as a clipper system passes to our north. Skies will become clear by Sunday Afternoon in most areas. The clear skies and light winds on Sunday Night will combine with what snow cover we have to make for ideal cooling conditions at night. Therefore, single digit minimum temperatures will be widespread. Some of our coldest sections could drop to around or slightly below zero degrees.

Another cold day is expected for Monday. An area of high pressure is forecast to lock colder air into place. Temperatures will struggle to reach the middle twenties for highs again! The rock bottom drop experienced in the morning will be difficult to recover from. The day will start clear. But our next storm system will begin to make an approach. Based on the latest information, Monday Night looks dry now. The storm will be Tuesday into Wednesday.

Nothing has changed from late this morning. The idea here is that we must wait until a clipper passes us by to our north. This will set the stage for the position of an area of high pressure to our north. The placement will determine the exact blocking and extent of the cold air. Some model solutions would result in a fairly snowy situation while would indicate a very wet situation. If you blended the two possibilities, you would have some sort of a wintry mix or ice situation. But blending is not necessarily the correct idea all the time. This storm track will shift back and forth over the next few days. In this forecast, I will simply call for a wintry mix. I will also choose the freezing mark for temperatures. These will be adjusted upward or downward depending on the storm track. I think there is increasing confidence of a precipitation maker of significance and a threat for gusty winds.

I will post more on the storm threat as necessary.

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