Latest Snow Map, Mixing Potential Results in Hard Fcst

There has been a complete overhaul of my snow total map for this storm system. The first change is to account for the heavier liquid amounts projected by the computer models for the Northeast portions of New Jersey into New York City. This looks like all snow for these areas on the higher resolution models. The latest computer model guidance is indicating 0.25” to 0.50” of liquid across the area. This would equate to a range of 3 to 6 inches of snow.

The next tier down, the precipitation amounts may be closer to 0.25” of an inch for the entire event. This area will also be snow, perhaps with the exception of Ocean and Burlington Counties, and therefore I have gone with a 2 to 4 inches of snow range.

Then there is the yellow shaded area which represents 1 to 3 inches of snow. Areas well into the interior will have 0.10” to 0.25” of liquid to work with. However, the yellow area now appears in South Jersey into Maryland with a red dashed circle. Here, the amounts of precipitation are expected to be over 0.25” to as much as 0.50”. However, the latest temperature observations and the higher resolution models indicate the potential for freezing rain and sleet. So despite the higher available liquid, this could significantly keep snow accumulations down. However, should this red shaded area not see mixing, then the 2 to 4 inches of snow would have to be extended down into this zone.

Last night the guidance was indicating a weaker storm and also a storm that would be further to our east. Now with the storm stronger and perhaps tucked in closer to our coast, the Cape May to Atlantic City corridor may not see mainly rain with some sleet. Should this area not see a mix, then some accumulating snow in excess of 2 inches would be likely.

Timing wise, I still think we are on target for a start right around Midnight in Central and Southern New Jersey. I also think this system will be wrapping up just before or after rush hour. The short time frame and the potential for mixed precipitation will hinder high snowfall accumulations.