The frigid air across New Jersey will begin to moderate overnight as temperatures rise with the passage of a weak warm front. Some snow showers can be seen around Pittsburgh, but the eastern extent of the precipitation does not make it through Central Pennsylvania. The front will begin to moisten the columns and will throw clouds our way. The models indicate the warm air advection precipitation will miss our region. It will also take several hours to moisten the atmosphere with the arctic air in place, so any echoes on the radar may not actually be precipitation. I will allow for a few flurries or a snow shower. Some peaks of sun could break through the clouds at times on Tuesday. The high temperature will probably be recorded late on Tuesday as temperatures will rise throughout the day.
By the way, parts of Central New Jersey once again went down well into the negative digits….especially in Morris and Somerset Counties into Northwestern New Jersey.
It looks as though a better idea of how this storm will affect us is materializing on Wednesday. This can be expected 48 hours in advance of the storm. There is still some disagreement amongst the computer models. However, I will go with the more consistent modeling. It appears that the region will see precipitation break out on Wednesday Morning from south to north. The most available liquid amounts will be in New Jersey.
Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this storm being off the New Jersey and Delaware coastline. This means that Central and Southern New Jersey will be on the “colder” side of the storm. Being on the colder side of the storm implies that the counterclockwise flow around low pressure cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere prevents an east or southeast wind. Such a wind would take above freezing ocean water temperature affected air out in the Atlantic and bring it over New Jersey. However, the inland air will not be supportive of an all snow event for the entire area as it is just marginally cold. This introduces mixed precipitation chances which can make for an extremely challenging forecast.
At this hour, I think some cold air will be hanging around, particularly at lower levels. Therefore, the precipitation could start as some sleet or freezing rain along the Delaware River and then change to rain, potentially mixed with sleet. The colder solutions prolong the sleet and ice potential in these areas which could be overdone. This is too difficult to determine for sure at this point and a prolonged icing event in portions of this area cannot be ruled out, but the chance is very low at this moment.
Along the coastal counties, expect rain perhaps briefly mixed with sleet.
Then as the storm begins to intensify, expect everywhere to changeover to snow. The changeover will happen last in Atlantic, Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May Counties. Some of the computer models show quite a bit of liquid available as the colder air enters our area, especially in New Jersey and Delaware, as the “540 Line” swings out over the ocean. Therefore a fairly decent amount of snow may fall in a three to six hour window of time at the end of the storm. This also raises the possibility of a flash freeze, which could set to happen around the evening commute and later further to the east. I think this will occur around 54 hours from this posting.
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