The North American Model is still out of range on the 00z run, but it will be in range on Sunday. Based on the latest run of the model, it would appear that the storm system would be taking an inland track on this run which would result in warmer air moving into the region changing over the precipitation to freezing rain or even plain rain. If this is the case, we would be looking at the potential for significant flooding or significant icing depending on where you live in New Jersey because the system will be loaded with moisture. The “540 line” retreats to the north and west in advance of the precipitation arriving in the area and you need to be north of that line if you want snow.
The Global Forecast Model has shifted the track a bit further to the west tonight on the 00z run. The track on this run is still to our east, meaning we would be on the colder side of the storm. The “540 line” does retreat back to the north and west a bit, especially in Southern New Jersey. This means that this would be a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain with a bit of plain rain along the coast.
A lot to watch on Sunday.
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