Start and Middle of Storm in Question....Ending Becomes Clear

Another significant winter storm appears to be on the horizon. The storm is bizarre and complicated.

Tonight, confidence is growing for an accumulating snow in New Jersey as the storm departs. This could be a quick thumping of snow that could quickly deteriorate weather conditions. As colder air pushes in and snow begins to fall, areas that see rain will likely experience a flash freeze. The models are indicating 0.50” to 1.00” of available liquid after the “540 Line” pushes well off the coastline. This amount of liquid typically means that anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of snow would be possible across the region. Both the NAM and GFS from 00z agree on this. We are now in a good range for model accuracy.

What we have to work on in the next twelve hours is determining what precipitation types will be occurring at the beginning and middle parts of the storm. The latest high resolution model shows that much of the interior of Central and Southern New Jersey will be seeing sleet or some sort of rain and sleet mixture. Temperatures may be above freezing in most areas for there to be freezing rain, but it cannot be ruled out and this is something that will have to be watched. For Southeastern New Jersey, it appears to be mainly rain during the start and end, but even here there could be some sleet. I could see the opportunity for some prolonged icing in portions of Central New Jersey.

It also seems to be prudent to indicate that there is the possibility of strong wind gusts as the storm intensifies. This could potentially coincide with the heavy snowfall. The snow appears to be wet in nature, so power outages could become an issue in portions of the state. Of course any rain water would freeze on trees, especially pine trees, should there be a drop in temperature. This would allow the snow to stick like it was glued to the trees. Any icing of 0.25"+ would also lead to power outages.