Very Windy and Wet This Evening and Tonight

Major storm headed towards the region this evening into tonight.

All of North and most of Central New Jersey is now under a flood watch. The NAM has widespread purple coloring indicating a quick 1.50 to 1.75 inches of rain in less than six hours during the time frame of convection which I suspect may lead to some localized flash flooding. Total rainfall of 1.75 to 2.50 inches looks to be a good bet for much of the region. Bucks, Montgomery, Eastern Berks, and Eastern Lehigh Counties into North-Central New Jersey need 1 to 2 inches in less than 6 hours for flash flooding to begin. Elsewhere in Pennsylvania…2 to 3 inches of rain would be needed for flash flooding to begin. In Southern New Jersey, rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches would be needed for flash flooding to begin and the sandier soil will make this area less vulnerable to flooding. If the NAM is correct, the heaviest rain would be right over the Delaware River and Interstate 95 corridor.



We also may be dealing with thunderstorms that could contain damaging wind gusts. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has the slight risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of Southern New Jersey. I think it is possible that they will extend the risk area further northward in later outlooks. The North American Model and some of the high resolution models show clearly that a line of convection… pushing from west to east between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. …will impact the region. Basically, a low or meso-low will develop a cold front pushing towards our region. The low will energize the front. Moisture will be streaming in from the fetch off the Atlantic and combine with the Gulf Moisture that is open for business. All of this suggests a super soaking and a good feed into a line of convection. The National Weather Service is concerned significant wind damage may occur east of this line in New Jersey and I couldn't agree with them more.

We also will be dealing with wind issues that are non-convective related. We have had some decent soakings and this will be another one. The ground will be wet enough to be supportive of an increased risk for trees to become uprooted in strong winds. Unfortunately, it looks like the jet intensifies by mid-evening during the timing of the heavy rain which could transfer the momentum down to the surface. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH appear likely, perhaps higher than 50 MPH along the coastline. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory which implies sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts of 46 to 57 MPH are imminent or occurring. This is in effect from noon today until midnight tonight. The gradient looks tight enough that even when it is not raining...gusts of around 45 MPH will occur.

The strong onshore winds will also pose a risk for widespread minor coastal flooding, with scattered areas of moderate coastal flooding. A coastal flood warning has been issued for the tidal areas of the Delaware River and the entire New Jersey/Delaware Atlantic coastline.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (RARITAN BAY)... HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 720 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 650 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 657 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT)... HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
731 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 809 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REEDY POINT... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY)... HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 1041 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT PHILADELPHIA... PENNSYLVANIA (DELAWARE RIVER)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 112 AM SUNDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 9.0 TO
9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON BACK BAYS AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES LATER THAN
IT DOES ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.

* WAVES...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT MAY
BE IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

Major Storm Saturday P.M....Widespread Issues

A major rain and wind event is anticipated for Saturday, especially Saturday Night into early on Sunday Morning. The system has the potential to create moderate coastal flooding, damaging winds, flash flooding/flooding, and coastal flooding.

A strengthening low pressure system is moving eastward towards the Great Lakes and in response a cold front will approach our region on Saturday. A significant wave of low pressure is anticipated to develop along the front which will energize it further. A fetch off the Atlantic Ocean and support from the Gulf of Mexico should be capable of causing a huge intensification in the rain over our area. Therefore, several inches of rain may occur and it could come in a 6 to 12 hour period, introducing the possibility of localized flash flooding. At this point, 1.50” to 3.50” of rain is looking like a very good possibility. If the rain doesn’t fall quick enough for flash flooding, these rainfall amounts could be very well capable of causing creeks and streams to rise to or over their banks. The North American Model is showing a good slug of purple on the 18z run, therefore I think the proposal of an excessive rainfall event is gaining more confidence.

There is an opportunity for some strong winds across the region. A strong jet will develop aloft and maximize over our region during the evening hours. Heavy rain will transport the strong winds down to the surface, but even without the rain…some of this wind will be capable of mixing to the surface with the tightening gradient. Thunderstorms, which are expected to occur any time after 6:00 p.m., will be even more capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Right now, a widespread severe weather outbreak is expected south of the region by the Storm Prediction Center where sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow for more destabilization of the atmosphere resulting in stronger downdrafts. However, we could definitely see at least scattered thunderstorms with damaging winds and I will continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center. Right now, South Jersey is under a “see text” or a 5% risk for severe thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory meaning conditions are imminent or occurring in which sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent gusts of 46 to 57 MPH from Noon to Midnight on Saturday. This product is issued for non-convective wind potential. I think we may even see some areas, especially along the coast where the east-southeast wind could be the strongest, upgraded to a high wind warning. I can see some gusts maximizing to around 65 MPH. Inland, widespread 40 to 55 MPH gusts are expected…possibly higher with thunderstorms.

Huge impact on the Delaware River and Atlantic Coasts with coastal flooding: Widespread minor tidal flooding likely, at least scattered moderate tidal flooding likely...maybe even some major tidal flooding if gusts can reach 55 or 60 MPH at the shore

Power Outages: Certainly possible just with the wind, not adding the wet ground and the soaking expected.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower forties in many locations and slowly work their way through into the fifties on Saturday. Temperatures will reach their highest point Saturday Evening. The storm pulls away early on Sunday morning, with rain leaving the coastline by daybreak. Sunshine should follow with breezy conditions. Temperatures will rise into the sixties during the afternoon.

Windy Afternoon....Overnight Thunderstorms With Damaging Wind Potential

3:40 p.m. update:
A wind advisory has been issued for Burlington, Camden, Ocean, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May Counties from 2:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. Tuesday. The current wind advisory remains in effect for Southeastern Burlington, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May Counties until 6:00 p.m.

Red Flag Warnings have been posted for Burlington, Ocean, and Camden counties until 6:00 p.m.







A look at the visible satellite imagery this morning shows that sunshine is beginning to become more prevalent south of the warm frontal boundary. Additional breaks in the clouds should develop from the south and west and move northeastward through the afternoon hours. It is anticipated that much of New Jersey is observing mostly sunny skies by later this afternoon. It is at this time, when the sunshine develops, temperatures will begin to rise dramatically. It is already doing so in Southern New Jersey and therefore this clearly will be the warmest area today. It is 44 degrees in New Brunswick and 58 degrees in Vincentown as of 10:15 a.m.

The sunshine and rising temperatures will begin to mix the air and this may transport strong winds aloft to the surface. Winds will become sustained between 20 and 35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The highest chance is over the wind advisory area, but I can see the wind potential developing across the entire region should sunshine break out. Some portions of South Jersey could reach near 80 degrees. Most of the region will push well into the seventies once the sunshine is out for several hours, after being stuck in the mid to upper forties at this hour in the north.

Southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties remain under a wind advisory.

A red flag warning may be issued later today for portions of Southern New Jersey. With the rain overnight and dew points well above the threshold for a warning, the conditions may not technically meet warning conditions. However, a drying wind and mixing will drop the dew points some for a time. In addition, the strong winds and very warm temperatures will make for as good of conditions as you can get for rapid spread of fire should one develop without meeting the moisture criteria, technically speaking.

Meanwhile, I will be watching a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak to our west this afternoon into tonight. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will become common out to our west, including but not limited to Pittsburgh. Late tonight, this line will be driven across Central Pennsylvania. The North American Model and Global Forecast System models show that at this time the line weakens, but it still maintains itself to some degree all the way to the New Jersey coastline early on Tuesday Morning. With strong winds continuing to be indicated aloft, even the modest convection will be able to transport strong winds to the surface. Therefore, it won’t take the strongest convection to develop some pockets of damaging wind gusts in our area.

Windy and Very Mild Monday

Monday: Early showers/thunder....becoming mostly sunny...66 in far NW to 80 South. Very windy. Gusts between 40 and 45 MPH, as high as 50 MPH.

Monday Night into Tuesday Morning: Windy, Possible Strong T-Storms...Isolated Severe.

Tuesday Morning into Tuesday Evening: Cooler and windy. Wind gusts up to 50 MPH from the NW. 57-64 early...then dropping in the aftn.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning...late showers.

Thursday: Breezy and mild.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms.


A wind advisory has been posted for Southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties for Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. It is quite possible that the wind advisory area is expanded. I am expecting strong winds, if not high winds, across much of my website viewing area Monday Afternoon into Tuesday.

A strong warm front will lift northward early on Monday Morning. The warm front may initially struggle to lift northward, but it will be well north if the models are correct by the late morning hours. Meanwhile, a potent low pressure center will intensify and deepen north of the Great Lakes in Canada. The low will energize a cold front and drive into the warm sector, causing a line of severe thunderstorms to develop as the difference in air masses clash.

The potent low pressure center will work with other various factors to really tighten the pressure gradient across the region. The American computer models, both the NAM and GFS, have had a diamond shape look to the wind gradient for days now. This setup is usually results in strong winds aloft. There are two typical ways to tap into the strong winds aloft. This can be done by mixing and by convection firing up. We may have both occur.

By Monday Afternoon, especially south of Route 1, temperatures will surge as skies may become mostly sunny. The sunshine and rising temperatures will begin to mix the air and this may transport these strong winds to the surface. Winds will become sustained between 20 and 35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The highest chance is over the wind advisory area, but I can see the wind potential developing across the entire region should sunshine break out even in Northern New Jersey. Some portions of South Jersey could reach near 80 degrees. I’ll have to watch Trenton. Last time, even Trenton reached 80 degrees with a strong southerly flow about three weeks ago. At the very least, lower to mid seventies region-wide can be anticipated. Sixties are likely, perhaps better, in far Northern Jersey.

Very mild temperatures and strong winds will pose the risk for increased fire danger. The moisture content of the air is questionable with a gulf flow, but the wind speeds and warmth may makeup for that.

On Monday Evening, the winds may subside with the loss of sun and nightfall. However, it is possible that the approaching cold front from the west will maintain the strong, gusty winds. At this point, I am thinking a lull could happen for a few hours before another strong gust with the frontal arrival late into early on Tuesday Morning. The late arrival of the cold front is going to mean New Jersey will escape widespread severe weather that will be ongoing in Western and Central Pennsylvania. As the overnight progresses, instability should wane to some degree. However, despite waning instability and weakening convection, the winds will be strong enough aloft that some thunderstorms that are still organized will be able to pull strong winds to the surface and this means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging winds would be the main threat, although shear may pose the risk for a tornado. Some small hail may also occur. Southern areas would have the greatest chance of severe weather.

Colder on Tuesday behind the front and thunderstorms, and it could become windy once again as we will be in the western half of the diamond shape. Behind the front, the gusts will come out of the northwest and once again could be as high as 45 or 50 MPH.

Wind Advisory and Heavy T-Storm Potential Late Tonight

A wind advisory was posted just a short time ago for Eastern and Southern New Jersey. A wind advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts between 46 and 57 MPH are anticipated. Currently the advisory goes into the late evening hours. With the saturated ground, I have been emphasizing the potential for scattered trees to come down for days and this remains true with the soaking rain in progress and even heavier rain later tonight. Scattered power outages are expected. Wind gusts below the advisory criterion are even capable of bringing down trees with the soaked ground.

The computer model guidance continues to show a well-developed line of thunderstorms pushing through New Jersey between 11:00 p.m. and 3:00 a.m. with torrential rain. Based on the organization of these storms and strong winds aloft, I could even see the possibility of isolated damaging wind gusts with these storms.

A coastal flood warning has been issued for Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties. Tidal effects will aggravate the flooding along the Delaware River and along the coastline. Flood advisories and flood warnings are also posted for various communities and more will be added through the night I am sure. Low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage will flood first and then the water will enter and flood tributaries, creeks, and streams. Finally, the water will enter the major rivers and flood them. This will be a process, so the riverbeds may not flood from rain water until after the tidal flooding. The exception is the ongoing flooding for the Passaic River and also any riverbeds impacted by enhanced rains from thunderstorms which could result in flashier flooding.

Wind Advisory and Heavy T-Storm Potential Late Tonight

Image added shortly

A wind advisory was posted just a short time ago for Eastern and Southern New Jersey. A wind advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts between 46 and 57 MPH are anticipated. Currently the advisory goes into the late evening hours. With the saturated ground, I have been emphasizing the potential for scattered trees to come down for days and this remains true with the soaking rain in progress and even heavier rain later tonight. Scattered power outages are expected. Wind gusts below the advisory criterion are even capable of bringing down trees with the soaked ground.

The computer model guidance continues to show a well-developed line of thunderstorms pushing through New Jersey between 11:00 p.m. and 3:00 a.m. with torrential rain. Based on the organization of these storms and strong winds aloft, I could even see the possibility of isolated damaging wind gusts with these storms.

A coastal flood warning has been issued for Northwestern Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem Counties. Tidal effects will aggravate the flooding along the Delaware River and along the coastline. Flood advisories and flood warnings are also posted for various communities and more will be added through the night I am sure. Low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage will flood first and then the water will enter and flood tributaries, creeks, and streams. Finally, the water will enter the major rivers and flood them. This will be a process, so the riverbeds may not flood from rain water until after the tidal flooding. The exception is the ongoing flooding for the Passaic River and also any riverbeds impacted by enhanced rains from thunderstorms which could result in flashier flooding.

Wind Advisory Replaces Warning As Strongest Winds Pass

The high wind warning has been downgraded to a wind advisory. The wind advisory is in effect until Midnight. The sustained winds are 15 to 25 MPH, with frequent wind gusts between 40 and 50 MPH being reported. Lakehurst and Atlantic City reported a wind gust of 47 MPH at around 7:55 p.m. A wind advisory implies hazardous winds are imminent or occurring. While it may not be as severe as a warning, trees and branches still will come down in some communities. Temperatures have fallen as rapidly as had been expected and are now in the middle-thirties. This is allowing wind chill values to be in the upper twenties and lower thirties, making it uncomfortable for those without electricity tonight.

The highest wind gusts have now passed. Roaring winds came across New Jersey this afternoon and early this evening. The first round was localized damaging wind gusts within a dangerous squall-line of thunderstorms. The thunderstorms were able to transport damaging winds to the surface in the form of downdrafts and microbursts. Around 1:12 p.m. there was a 55 MPH wind gust associated with a thunderstorm in Highland Park which is in Middlesex County. The storm then took trees down in Woodbury and Washington in Gloucester County and Audubon in Camden County. The most impressive damage of this event occurred in Ocean County. In Lakewood, Ocean County windows were smashed and singles were torn off the roofs of structures. The radar showed a very clear microburst structure form in Lakewood. This same thunderstorm then impacted Seaside Heights, Ocean County. Here, a roof was blown off a building, shingles were peeled off others, and fences were taken down.

Then there was a lull until the actual cold front swept through the region about an hour after the thunderstorms passed through. Impressive sustained wind speeds were recorded. Philadelphia International Airport (which is actually in New Jersey), reported a sustained wind speed of 46 MPH and observed a peak wind gust of 63 MPH. That is pretty impressive considering it is rare to reach or exceed the high wind warning threshold of 40 MPH sustained winds. Brick recorded a wind gust of 59 MPH and Tuckerton recorded a wind gust of 61 MPH. Atlantic City reached 54 MPH in a peak gust and Lakehurst reached 52 MPH.

Another potential wind event is expected on Monday into Tuesday. This will come after another inch or two of rain. At this time it could be more convective in nature, but even the cold front itself may generate strong…if not high winds. High wind warning events are not common, but yet we have had two in the past week. We’ll wait to see if we have number three in less than one month.

2/18/2011 Extended Forecast: High, Damaging Winds Saturday, Snow?

This took 2 hours to prepare so enjoy! A few very isolated t-storms (only source right here to predict such) will push offshore by 8:30 p.m.



Saturday is going to be a very windy day, with the possibility for damaging winds. I have been hitting hard on this high wind potential for several days now. The latest information suggests sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH with frequent wind gusts between 50 and 60 MPH. This type of wind, even without a soaked ground, can bring down whole, healthy trees. Weaker trees and branches will definitely have an opportunity to come down with the strong gusts. If we see a lot of gusting over 55 MPH, I think we could see quite a few areas lose electricity at least for a few hours. The ground saturation varies across New Jersey. The recent melting of the snow has kept the ground fairly moist below the surface in Central and Southern New Jersey. With the roots rooted in the more moist part of the ground, this could lead to an increase in downed trees, although this is not a ground absolutely saturated. The top half inch though is fairly dry or will be rapidly drying out as the wind picks up and the humidity drops causing a concern for some enhanced fire danger. By the way, wind gust projector is showing nothing but red which is not a good sign. Widespread 50 Knot gusts or 58 MPH & the map remains unchanged from 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.







With this forecast matching up well with the National Weather Service, they have issued products that are supportive of my concerns. A high wind watch has been issued for Northwestern, Central, and Southern New Jersey for Saturday. A high wind watch means that sustained winds of 40 MPH or greater and/or frequent wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater are possible with thirty-six hours. If high winds become imminent or begin to occur, a high wind warning will likely be issued. Sometimes, the winds may be lighter than originally thought and they could replace the watch with an advisory. Northeastern New Jersey’s five counties are under a wind advisory which implies that sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts between 46 and 57 MPH are imminent or occurring. However, the advisory statement does mention that the advisory may need to be upgraded to a warning. A red flag warning, for extremely dangerous fire growth, is in effect for mostly southern portions of New Jersey.

Here is the summary:

High Wind Watch: Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May Counties.

Wind Advisory: Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Union, and Essex Counties.

Red Flag Warning: Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May Counties.





Sunday, we have morning sunshine likely. Clouds will begin to increase Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening. A warm front will approach the region on Sunday Night. The timing of the thicker clouds will be critical as any breaks could allow from some quick cooling, before temperatures begin to rise again. Temperatures will be upper thirties to lower forties on Sunday with temperatures falling back as the sun settles for the evening. The latest 18z guidance shows the bulk of the precipitation staying north and west of our area, with perhaps just some light precipitation. The lighter precipitation means less of a chance of mixing and perhaps we would just be dealing with some drizzle or freezing drizzle. However, any heavier show could initially cause some sleet pellets or wet snowflakes. Some low clouds are possible on Sunday Night into Monday with increasing low-level moisture. On Monday, the first low moves away from the region and we will see a lull in precipitation, with again perhaps a few showers and some drizzle. Temperatures continue to appear as though they will be quite tricky as the warm sector may not get through our entire region. The warm sector could push temperatures up to near 60 degrees while north of the front temperatures are around 40 degrees. Right now, I will insert highs in the lower fifties, although they could be much higher or much lower.

I mentioned a lull, because it still appears a second system will enter our region for Monday Night into Tuesday. Behind the first low pressure area, a more northerly component will become established driving in colder air. This means that while precipitation could initially begin as rain or a mix, there could definitely be a transition to sleet and wet snow by Tuesday Morning. There could be accumulations of snow and sleet across portions of the area. Some of the models show a pretty good burst of snow prior or during the morning commute, roughly 84 hours from now. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the thirties. Rain prior to the snow, a warmer ground, and higher sun angles are all factors that must be considered when forecasting snowfall amounts. As on person told me yesterday, “Say it isn’t snow, Doug!”

High Wind Watch with Wind Advisory in Northeast NJ

High Wind Warning: Sustained winds 40 MPH or greater/Wind Gusts 58 MPH or greater

Wind Advisory: Sustained winds of 31-39 MPH/Wind Gusts 46-57 MPH.

High Wind Watch: Means warning conditions are possible.

I will have a new blog with the complete forecast around 6:00 p.m. so stay tuned and refresh your browser!

Still Windy, Peak Gusts Behind Us

There is no doubt that the hardest hit part of New Jersey with this wind event was Southern New Jersey. Atlantic City Electric has reported several thousand without power in various sections of their service territory throughout this event. They now have isolated pockets of a few hundred without power, but the numbers appear to be dwindling.

The wind gusts and sustained wind speeds seem to be leveling off. The current gusts on the observations are mainly between 30 and 40 MPH, just below the criteria for an advisory. The wind advisory continues. Some isolated wind gusts up to 50 MPH are still possible for the next few hours, but these will be more isolated in nature. The peak gusts were late this afternoon and early this evening when winds were gusting between 45 and 55 MPH as the front passed through.

NEW JERSEY

...ANZ430...
SHIP JOHN SHOAL NOS 47 300 PM 2/14

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
ATLANTIC CITY AIRPOR 47 846 PM 2/14

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
MOUNT HOLLY AIRPORT 46 327 PM 2/14

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
MILLVILLE 46 555 PM 2/14

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
SANDY HOOK 50 405 PM 2/14
KEANSBURG 48 1000 PM 2/14
MONMOUTH BEACH 48 950 PM 2/14

...MORRIS COUNTY...
MORRISTOWN 46 345 PM 2/14

...OCEAN COUNTY...
BRICK TWP 52 400 PM 2/14
BARNEGAT BAY 50 300 PM 2/14
TUCKERTON 49 740 PM 2/14
BARNEGAT LIGHT 49 500 PM 2/14
HARVEY CEDARS 46 400 PM 2/14
LAKEHURST AIRPORT 46 212 PM 2/14
LONG BEACH PARK 45 244 PM 2/14

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
HIGH POINT 50 900 PM 2/14

...WARREN COUNTY...
HACKETTSTOWN 48 300 PM 2/14

Wind Advisory This Afternoon into Early Tuesday

A wind advisory has been issued for all of New Jersey from this afternoon into early Tuesday Morning. Southerly winds will increase ahead of a cold front this afternoon. However, the strongest winds will be reserved for late afternoon into tonight as a cold front sweeps through the region and shifts the wind direction to west-northwest. Winds will likely become sustained between 20 and 35 MPH with gusts of 45 to 55 MPH. There is a possibility some wind gusts approach 60 MPH late today for an hour or two after the frontal passage. A wind advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts of 46 to 57 MPH are imminent or occurring. The next level would be a high wind warning for sustained winds of 40 MPH or greater or frequent wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater.

I have just posted the latest rendered version of wind gust projector. As you see, widespread orange and some red appears around 7:00 p.m. whic is 35-45 KNOTS of wind.

Wind Advisory Today, Strong Winds Expected

All of Central and Southern New Jersey has been placed under a wind advisory into early this evening. A wind advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts of 46 to 57 MPH are imminent or occurring.

At this point, the soundings are suggesting sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH with wind gusts between 40 and 50 MPH. I still believe there could be isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 MPH. These wind speeds will certainly down weakened trees and weakened branches. Some scattered power outages are likely later today as the peak gusts are realized.

A secondary reinforcement of colder air this afternoon could be accompanied with snow showers and snow squalls, with the highest chances north of Route 1. We did have rain and some snow showers this morning that came through between 4:00 a.m. and 5:00 a.m.