Windy and Very Mild Monday

Monday: Early showers/thunder....becoming mostly sunny...66 in far NW to 80 South. Very windy. Gusts between 40 and 45 MPH, as high as 50 MPH.

Monday Night into Tuesday Morning: Windy, Possible Strong T-Storms...Isolated Severe.

Tuesday Morning into Tuesday Evening: Cooler and windy. Wind gusts up to 50 MPH from the NW. 57-64 early...then dropping in the aftn.

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning...late showers.

Thursday: Breezy and mild.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms.


A wind advisory has been posted for Southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties for Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. It is quite possible that the wind advisory area is expanded. I am expecting strong winds, if not high winds, across much of my website viewing area Monday Afternoon into Tuesday.

A strong warm front will lift northward early on Monday Morning. The warm front may initially struggle to lift northward, but it will be well north if the models are correct by the late morning hours. Meanwhile, a potent low pressure center will intensify and deepen north of the Great Lakes in Canada. The low will energize a cold front and drive into the warm sector, causing a line of severe thunderstorms to develop as the difference in air masses clash.

The potent low pressure center will work with other various factors to really tighten the pressure gradient across the region. The American computer models, both the NAM and GFS, have had a diamond shape look to the wind gradient for days now. This setup is usually results in strong winds aloft. There are two typical ways to tap into the strong winds aloft. This can be done by mixing and by convection firing up. We may have both occur.

By Monday Afternoon, especially south of Route 1, temperatures will surge as skies may become mostly sunny. The sunshine and rising temperatures will begin to mix the air and this may transport these strong winds to the surface. Winds will become sustained between 20 and 35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The highest chance is over the wind advisory area, but I can see the wind potential developing across the entire region should sunshine break out even in Northern New Jersey. Some portions of South Jersey could reach near 80 degrees. I’ll have to watch Trenton. Last time, even Trenton reached 80 degrees with a strong southerly flow about three weeks ago. At the very least, lower to mid seventies region-wide can be anticipated. Sixties are likely, perhaps better, in far Northern Jersey.

Very mild temperatures and strong winds will pose the risk for increased fire danger. The moisture content of the air is questionable with a gulf flow, but the wind speeds and warmth may makeup for that.

On Monday Evening, the winds may subside with the loss of sun and nightfall. However, it is possible that the approaching cold front from the west will maintain the strong, gusty winds. At this point, I am thinking a lull could happen for a few hours before another strong gust with the frontal arrival late into early on Tuesday Morning. The late arrival of the cold front is going to mean New Jersey will escape widespread severe weather that will be ongoing in Western and Central Pennsylvania. As the overnight progresses, instability should wane to some degree. However, despite waning instability and weakening convection, the winds will be strong enough aloft that some thunderstorms that are still organized will be able to pull strong winds to the surface and this means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Damaging winds would be the main threat, although shear may pose the risk for a tornado. Some small hail may also occur. Southern areas would have the greatest chance of severe weather.

Colder on Tuesday behind the front and thunderstorms, and it could become windy once again as we will be in the western half of the diamond shape. Behind the front, the gusts will come out of the northwest and once again could be as high as 45 or 50 MPH.