Saturday is going to be a very windy day, with the possibility for damaging winds. I have been hitting hard on this high wind potential for several days now. The latest information suggests sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH with frequent wind gusts between 50 and 60 MPH. This type of wind, even without a soaked ground, can bring down whole, healthy trees. Weaker trees and branches will definitely have an opportunity to come down with the strong gusts. If we see a lot of gusting over 55 MPH, I think we could see quite a few areas lose electricity at least for a few hours. The ground saturation varies across New Jersey. The recent melting of the snow has kept the ground fairly moist below the surface in Central and Southern New Jersey. With the roots rooted in the more moist part of the ground, this could lead to an increase in downed trees, although this is not a ground absolutely saturated. The top half inch though is fairly dry or will be rapidly drying out as the wind picks up and the humidity drops causing a concern for some enhanced fire danger. By the way, wind gust projector is showing nothing but red which is not a good sign. Widespread 50 Knot gusts or 58 MPH & the map remains unchanged from 1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
With this forecast matching up well with the National Weather Service, they have issued products that are supportive of my concerns. A high wind watch has been issued for Northwestern, Central, and Southern New Jersey for Saturday. A high wind watch means that sustained winds of 40 MPH or greater and/or frequent wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater are possible with thirty-six hours. If high winds become imminent or begin to occur, a high wind warning will likely be issued. Sometimes, the winds may be lighter than originally thought and they could replace the watch with an advisory. Northeastern New Jersey’s five counties are under a wind advisory which implies that sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts between 46 and 57 MPH are imminent or occurring. However, the advisory statement does mention that the advisory may need to be upgraded to a warning. A red flag warning, for extremely dangerous fire growth, is in effect for mostly southern portions of New Jersey.
Here is the summary:
High Wind Watch: Sussex, Morris, Warren, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May Counties.
Wind Advisory: Passaic, Bergen, Hudson, Union, and Essex Counties.
Red Flag Warning: Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, Atlantic, Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, and Cape May Counties.
Sunday, we have morning sunshine likely. Clouds will begin to increase Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening. A warm front will approach the region on Sunday Night. The timing of the thicker clouds will be critical as any breaks could allow from some quick cooling, before temperatures begin to rise again. Temperatures will be upper thirties to lower forties on Sunday with temperatures falling back as the sun settles for the evening. The latest 18z guidance shows the bulk of the precipitation staying north and west of our area, with perhaps just some light precipitation. The lighter precipitation means less of a chance of mixing and perhaps we would just be dealing with some drizzle or freezing drizzle. However, any heavier show could initially cause some sleet pellets or wet snowflakes. Some low clouds are possible on Sunday Night into Monday with increasing low-level moisture. On Monday, the first low moves away from the region and we will see a lull in precipitation, with again perhaps a few showers and some drizzle. Temperatures continue to appear as though they will be quite tricky as the warm sector may not get through our entire region. The warm sector could push temperatures up to near 60 degrees while north of the front temperatures are around 40 degrees. Right now, I will insert highs in the lower fifties, although they could be much higher or much lower.
I mentioned a lull, because it still appears a second system will enter our region for Monday Night into Tuesday. Behind the first low pressure area, a more northerly component will become established driving in colder air. This means that while precipitation could initially begin as rain or a mix, there could definitely be a transition to sleet and wet snow by Tuesday Morning. There could be accumulations of snow and sleet across portions of the area. Some of the models show a pretty good burst of snow prior or during the morning commute, roughly 84 hours from now. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the thirties. Rain prior to the snow, a warmer ground, and higher sun angles are all factors that must be considered when forecasting snowfall amounts. As on person told me yesterday, “Say it isn’t snow, Doug!”
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