A wind advisory has been issued for Burlington, Camden, Ocean, Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May Counties from 2:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. Tuesday. The current wind advisory remains in effect for Southeastern Burlington, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May Counties until 6:00 p.m.
Red Flag Warnings have been posted for Burlington, Ocean, and Camden counties until 6:00 p.m.
A look at the visible satellite imagery this morning shows that sunshine is beginning to become more prevalent south of the warm frontal boundary. Additional breaks in the clouds should develop from the south and west and move northeastward through the afternoon hours. It is anticipated that much of New Jersey is observing mostly sunny skies by later this afternoon. It is at this time, when the sunshine develops, temperatures will begin to rise dramatically. It is already doing so in Southern New Jersey and therefore this clearly will be the warmest area today. It is 44 degrees in New Brunswick and 58 degrees in Vincentown as of 10:15 a.m.
The sunshine and rising temperatures will begin to mix the air and this may transport strong winds aloft to the surface. Winds will become sustained between 20 and 35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The highest chance is over the wind advisory area, but I can see the wind potential developing across the entire region should sunshine break out. Some portions of South Jersey could reach near 80 degrees. Most of the region will push well into the seventies once the sunshine is out for several hours, after being stuck in the mid to upper forties at this hour in the north.
Southeastern Burlington, Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties remain under a wind advisory.
A red flag warning may be issued later today for portions of Southern New Jersey. With the rain overnight and dew points well above the threshold for a warning, the conditions may not technically meet warning conditions. However, a drying wind and mixing will drop the dew points some for a time. In addition, the strong winds and very warm temperatures will make for as good of conditions as you can get for rapid spread of fire should one develop without meeting the moisture criteria, technically speaking.
Meanwhile, I will be watching a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak to our west this afternoon into tonight. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will become common out to our west, including but not limited to Pittsburgh. Late tonight, this line will be driven across Central Pennsylvania. The North American Model and Global Forecast System models show that at this time the line weakens, but it still maintains itself to some degree all the way to the New Jersey coastline early on Tuesday Morning. With strong winds continuing to be indicated aloft, even the modest convection will be able to transport strong winds to the surface. Therefore, it won’t take the strongest convection to develop some pockets of damaging wind gusts in our area.
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