A major rain and wind event is anticipated for Saturday, especially Saturday Night into early on Sunday Morning. The system has the potential to create moderate coastal flooding, damaging winds, flash flooding/flooding, and coastal flooding.
A strengthening low pressure system is moving eastward towards the Great Lakes and in response a cold front will approach our region on Saturday. A significant wave of low pressure is anticipated to develop along the front which will energize it further. A fetch off the Atlantic Ocean and support from the Gulf of Mexico should be capable of causing a huge intensification in the rain over our area. Therefore, several inches of rain may occur and it could come in a 6 to 12 hour period, introducing the possibility of localized flash flooding. At this point, 1.50” to 3.50” of rain is looking like a very good possibility. If the rain doesn’t fall quick enough for flash flooding, these rainfall amounts could be very well capable of causing creeks and streams to rise to or over their banks. The North American Model is showing a good slug of purple on the 18z run, therefore I think the proposal of an excessive rainfall event is gaining more confidence.
There is an opportunity for some strong winds across the region. A strong jet will develop aloft and maximize over our region during the evening hours. Heavy rain will transport the strong winds down to the surface, but even without the rain…some of this wind will be capable of mixing to the surface with the tightening gradient. Thunderstorms, which are expected to occur any time after 6:00 p.m., will be even more capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Right now, a widespread severe weather outbreak is expected south of the region by the Storm Prediction Center where sunshine and warmer temperatures will allow for more destabilization of the atmosphere resulting in stronger downdrafts. However, we could definitely see at least scattered thunderstorms with damaging winds and I will continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center. Right now, South Jersey is under a “see text” or a 5% risk for severe thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory meaning conditions are imminent or occurring in which sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent gusts of 46 to 57 MPH from Noon to Midnight on Saturday. This product is issued for non-convective wind potential. I think we may even see some areas, especially along the coast where the east-southeast wind could be the strongest, upgraded to a high wind warning. I can see some gusts maximizing to around 65 MPH. Inland, widespread 40 to 55 MPH gusts are expected…possibly higher with thunderstorms.
Huge impact on the Delaware River and Atlantic Coasts with coastal flooding: Widespread minor tidal flooding likely, at least scattered moderate tidal flooding likely...maybe even some major tidal flooding if gusts can reach 55 or 60 MPH at the shore
Power Outages: Certainly possible just with the wind, not adding the wet ground and the soaking expected.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower forties in many locations and slowly work their way through into the fifties on Saturday. Temperatures will reach their highest point Saturday Evening. The storm pulls away early on Sunday morning, with rain leaving the coastline by daybreak. Sunshine should follow with breezy conditions. Temperatures will rise into the sixties during the afternoon.
No comments:
Post a Comment