Very Windy and Wet This Evening and Tonight

Major storm headed towards the region this evening into tonight.

All of North and most of Central New Jersey is now under a flood watch. The NAM has widespread purple coloring indicating a quick 1.50 to 1.75 inches of rain in less than six hours during the time frame of convection which I suspect may lead to some localized flash flooding. Total rainfall of 1.75 to 2.50 inches looks to be a good bet for much of the region. Bucks, Montgomery, Eastern Berks, and Eastern Lehigh Counties into North-Central New Jersey need 1 to 2 inches in less than 6 hours for flash flooding to begin. Elsewhere in Pennsylvania…2 to 3 inches of rain would be needed for flash flooding to begin. In Southern New Jersey, rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches would be needed for flash flooding to begin and the sandier soil will make this area less vulnerable to flooding. If the NAM is correct, the heaviest rain would be right over the Delaware River and Interstate 95 corridor.



We also may be dealing with thunderstorms that could contain damaging wind gusts. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has the slight risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of Southern New Jersey. I think it is possible that they will extend the risk area further northward in later outlooks. The North American Model and some of the high resolution models show clearly that a line of convection… pushing from west to east between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. …will impact the region. Basically, a low or meso-low will develop a cold front pushing towards our region. The low will energize the front. Moisture will be streaming in from the fetch off the Atlantic and combine with the Gulf Moisture that is open for business. All of this suggests a super soaking and a good feed into a line of convection. The National Weather Service is concerned significant wind damage may occur east of this line in New Jersey and I couldn't agree with them more.

We also will be dealing with wind issues that are non-convective related. We have had some decent soakings and this will be another one. The ground will be wet enough to be supportive of an increased risk for trees to become uprooted in strong winds. Unfortunately, it looks like the jet intensifies by mid-evening during the timing of the heavy rain which could transfer the momentum down to the surface. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH appear likely, perhaps higher than 50 MPH along the coastline. The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory which implies sustained winds of 31 to 39 MPH or frequent wind gusts of 46 to 57 MPH are imminent or occurring. This is in effect from noon today until midnight tonight. The gradient looks tight enough that even when it is not raining...gusts of around 45 MPH will occur.

The strong onshore winds will also pose a risk for widespread minor coastal flooding, with scattered areas of moderate coastal flooding. A coastal flood warning has been issued for the tidal areas of the Delaware River and the entire New Jersey/Delaware Atlantic coastline.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (RARITAN BAY)... HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 720 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 650 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 657 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT)... HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
731 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 809 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.0 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT REEDY POINT... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY)... HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 1041 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT PHILADELPHIA... PENNSYLVANIA (DELAWARE RIVER)... HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 112 AM SUNDAY... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 9.0 TO
9.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON BACK BAYS AND TIDAL TRIBUTARIES LATER THAN
IT DOES ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.

* WAVES...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT MAY
BE IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.