The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern half of New Jersey, including portions of North-Central New Jersey under a "see text" risk for severe thunderstorms and all of North/Central New Jersey in a general risk for thunderstorms.
A disturbance will take advantage of steep lapse rates to develop some showers and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms. I already see some showers developing downwind of the Great Lakes...moving on eastward. If they survive...they would arrive late this afternoon into early this evening...before losing daytime heating support. With stronger winds aloft (some observed already by good mixing with surface gusts to 40 MPH)...any t-storm may be able to tap into this a cause some marginally severe gusts.
At this time, I am keeping the threat isolated. CAPE values look very limited at this point and may develop slightly by 4 p.m. to coincide with the arrival of the disturbance.
Flooding:
Yesterday's rain really did a number on the region and this storm really lived up to the potential I had been forecasting. Major flooding once again is ongoing in Northern New Jersey with moderate flooding in portions of Central New Jersey. The windy conditions today are also combining with the wet ground and I have had a few reports of power outages.
Coastal Flooding:
Still a threat of minor to moderate tidal flooding for the next few high tide cycles along the tidal portions of the Delaware River in Southern New Jersey.
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