A Few T-storms the Rest of Today, Slight Risk of Severe Wx on Sunday

The morning rain is now exiting the coastline. Overcast skies may eventually give way to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, resulting in some peaks of sunshine. The sunshine would quickly destabilize the atmosphere and with some moisture left in place combined with good bulk shear, some widely scattered thunderstorms may develop, especially out of the current shower cluster exiting West Virginia. Even if it is cloudy, thunderstorms that initiate may move into the overcast areas. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a “see text” or 5% risk of severe weather for today. There is a 5% risk for damaging winds and a 5% risk for large hail. There is some thinning noted in Central Pennsylvania and Central Maryland before that next batch of organized showers and eventual thunderstorms moves our way from West Virginia and this will probably bring the greatest potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms as there isn’t a whole lot of forcing out there. But even given this area on the radar…the cluster of showers and thunderstorms may affect areas mainly south of Trenton.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are a possibility on Sunday. While instability will be modest with expected cloud cover, enough of it will combine with bulk shear and more organized trigger mechanisms to warrant a probability of strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for Sunday, with a 15% probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.