Significant Rain, Wind, and Thunderstorm Event Saturday P.M.

A strong onshore flow will develop on Friday afternoon and draw in Atlantic Moisture into the entire region. This is as high pressure builds to our north, allowing the wind to shift from the easterly direction. As Saturday transpires, a storm system will move in from the Plains and slowly lift northeast into the Great Lakes. The area of low pressure will drag a cold front through the region on Saturday Evening. A wave of low pressure is expected to organize on the front and, combined with that onshore flow, torrential rainfall appears likely.

In addition, there is the potential for another round of high winds from the east-southeast direction. Wind gusts between 40 and 60 MPH look like a strong bet at this point, although this will be nailed down in more detail as we approach the event. With the ground soakings of the past few weeks and more rain with this system...many trees could come down should there be high winds...and with developing leaves...the trees will even be more subceptible to falling. Thunderstorms are possible and these could feature the strongest gusts.

At this point, 1.50" to 3.00" of a soaking rain appear very likely. Some flooding is possible of creeks and streams. Some rivers could also flood if we approach the 3.00". Some of this will be thunderstorm dependent.

We will be also watching potential tornadic development to our south where the Storm Prediction Center already has a slight risk of severe weather to our south in the Day 3 outlook. The ocean flow can sometimes cause things to become stable and preclude such agressive t-storm development...but not always as such was the case the other day...