Thunderstorms have begun to develop...although very scattered and disorganized so far...in Central Pennsylvania. With strong instability in place, Central and Eastern Pennsylvania have been placed under a severe thunderstorm watch as that instability can cause a t-storm or two to organize to severe limits once a thunderstorm initiates. "Can" is the key word as forcing is weak. But with a "chance", the watch has been posted for the areas out to our west.
The NAM from 18z just in continues to show that these storms remain disorganized due to a lack of strong convergence and that they diminish greatly by the time they arrive in New Jersey as night begins to approach. The instability may cause these storms to survive a bit more than the models indicate...but as I have been indicating...the threat for thunderstorms will be isolated especially with the instability to decrease when they arrive between 8 and 9 or even later.
The slight risk area has also been reduced and cut down to include less of NJ.
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