Slight Risk for Severe T-Storm Wednesday, But Will They Form?

For Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has a high-end slight risk probability with a 30% chance for severe weather to occur within 25 miles of a point. Certainly the instability will be there tomorrow. Sunshine should develop by mid-morning and temperatures will quickly push well into the seventies as we will be in the warm sector of a warm front that will be lifting northward early this morning. Some of the more robust guidance even indicates some lower eighties across South Jersey. This will lead to CAPE values of 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg. The lifted index also may be at least -3, if not higher.

However, despite the given instability, there are legitimate questions about whether there will be really a breakout of severe thunderstorms. Yes, we have a cold front which will act as a triggering mechanism to initiate thunderstorms. But the North American model and Global Forecast System model show weak convergence and lacks well organized and widespread thunderstorm initiation. In fact, the 00z NAM shows 0.00” of measurable precipitation in just about the entire New Jersey area.

So, this leads me to the forecast for the event. Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered in nature. Due to the instability, where they develop, they could quickly become severe with the potential for damaging winds. The higher resolution modeling is a bit more robust with the development of thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon across our region. At this present time, I am leaning with the modeling indicating less explosive and widespread development. This does not mean we will not have some pretty significant events with notable damage, it just means some areas could be bone dry and cloudy while others are getting hammered just 20 miles from where you reside.