Wet and Windy Later

A cold front is dropping down south of the region this morning and the cold front will become stationary this afternoon. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front and numerous rain showers and thunderstorms will develop. Heavy rainfall is likely, especially tonight into Wednesday Morning. One to two inches of rain may fall over a widespread area. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavier amounts and some localized flash flooding is possible if the thunderstorms can train over the same areas later today.

The severe weather threat will be highest in Southern New Jersey. Extreme Southern New Jersey is under a 5%, “see text” risk from the Storm Prediction Center for hail. The cold pool aloft would provide for favorable conditions for hail, but you need stronger instability to produce thunderstorms that can develop and pull the hailstones to the surface. Since the greatest instability lies south, this is where you may have some isolated thunderstorms with hail. Winds aloft will be intensifying with the developing jet, so gusty showers in all areas are possible this evening into the night. East and Northeast winds will become quite gusty at times into tonight and the National Weather Service believes winds will gust to 40 MPH at times. They also mention the chance that for gusts to approach the criteria for a wind advisory (46 to 57 MPH), but they right now have not issued a wind headline due to uncertainty. The ground is fairly wet from a decent rain event on the 8th and previous March rains, and should the wind coincide with the heavy rain later…we may see a few power outage issues. T-storms will be limited, but gusty in all areas should one develop...but the oceanic flow will help bring more stability to the region.

The intensifying low will also pull in the air that is off the ocean which is much colder... and this will help drop temperatures...slowly for the next few hours and then a sharper drop into this evening. Temperatures could be in the low to mid 50's for the evening commute.

Northwestern New Jersey will see moderate to heavy rain this morning with a transition to the entire region late today.