Another week of no real action

This has been extremely busy week, one that saw me out on the highway for much of the time. Earlier this week, I attended a presentation given by one of the leading forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Then I went to the annual emergency preparedness conference in Atlantic City for a few days. Friday, I had some business to attend to in Camden County. Fortunately, it was a quite week in the weather department. Wednesday was wet at times, but it was not a significant event. By the way, the Casinos in Atlantic City are absolutely dead by normal standards. I don’t ever recall being able to get parking on the lower floors of the parking garage.

Well the new week is beginning and it doesn’t look to be an active one, weather wise either. We will have a disturbance pass to our south today. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms are south of the Garden State. Perhaps a 10 to 20 percent chances exists for Millville, Cape May, and Salem. Otherwise, there will be a buildup of cumulus clouds. I don’t envision any interior watches, warnings, or advisories until at least Thursday. If anything pops up, it would be probably for frost. However, that is a far shot as I see temperatures well away from the value needed for frost formation. May 15 is the day that is usually recommended to plant outside.

High pressure takes over on Monday and holds firm through Wednesday. During this timeframe, a low pressure area will form off the New England coastline. Our region could be caught up in a wind tunnel and therefore some breezy conditions are likely during this time. It will not be the sunniest period as some clouds will likely bubble up with afternoon heating. I see signs that the high pressure area begins to nudge eastward and breakdown as the new weekend arrives and this perhaps could allow for some triggering mechanisms to begin to impact the area with showers and thunderstorms.

I see our ESNO phase turning more neutral as we head into the summer months. This introduces the possibility for less in the way of shear in the Atlantic Ocean. Of course, other factors are needed for tropical development, but this trend is worth mentioning this early in the game. Rarely do we go two years without a U.S. land falling hurricane. We have never gone three years. If we do not see a hurricane make landfall this year, it would be a first.